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ETEM Karakaya, (2001), “The Welfare and Production Effects of Turkey’s Customs Union Agreement with the EU: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing”, PhD Thesis, Nottingham Trent UNIVERSITY, Nottingham, (UK)
Dora J. Nadolski, (2000), “The etatist Turkish Republic and its political and socio-economic performance from 1980--1999: A developing state impacted by international organizations and interdependence”, PhD, UNIVERSITY Of Missouri - Kansas City
Mazen Mahmoud Soueid, (2000), "Ahead of the curve: Forecasting exchange rate and interest rate events in emerging markets (Russia, Brazil, Turkey)”, PhD, BROWN UNIVERSITY Mazen Mahmoud Soueid,(2000), "Ahead of the curve: Forecasting exchange rate and interest rate events in emerging markets (Russia, Brazil, Turkey)
thesis explores the relationship between external debt burden and economic
growth in the case of Turkey. The
thesis starts with trends in Turkish external debt burden and GNP, the structure
and composition of the external debt will be analysed in Chapter 2.
Chapter 3 reviews alternative approaches to external debt-economic growth
relationships. Some important
empirical external debt-economic growth studies will be reviewed and data
problems discussed. Chapter 4 of
the study presents a model which tests for the Turkish external debt-growth
relationships. This chapter extends
the model of Cunningham (1992) and uses multivariate cointegration techniques to
develop a vector error correction model useful for investigating the long-run
and short-run effects of external debt service on GNP.
To test for the reliability and robustness of the results, a different
approach will be used in Chapter 5. The
primary purpose of this chapter is to examine the relationships between debt
service,capital inflow and economic growth which are analysed with a
simultaneous equation using 3SLS method in
Turkey with an alternative approach to Chapter 4.
Chapter 6 uses the probit model to test the correlations between
traditional macro and structural variables with debt rescheduling of
Turkey. Chapter 7 takes full
advantage of our results to outline the policy issues and recommendations for
Turkey in the light of the previous chapters.
A vital question is whether the economy of Turkey would benefit from debt
results indicate that appropriate debt reductions have a positive
effect in growth in Turkey
Moreover, we focus on debt rescheduling probabilities and some policy
thesis concludes that the effect of external debt burden differs among the
countries. The thesis shows a
negative impact of external debt burden on Turkish economic growth.
Ozturkler, (2002), “The Monetary Transmission Mechanisms: An Empirical
Application to the Turkish Economy”, PhD Thesis, The
American University, Washington D.C. February 2002.
study aims to contribute to monetary economics by studying monetary transmission
channels in Turkey, an economy experiencing rapid structural change, rendering
structural models very fragile. A case is made for using VAR techniques to
measure monetary policy and reaction to it of other economic variables. One of
the findings of my empirical work is the existence of “price puzzle”, i.e.,
inflation rises in response to an increase in interest rates. A possible
explanation for the persistent “price puzzle” is what we termed as “cost
effect”. Another possible explanation is so called “omitted variable”
argument. A second finding of my empirical work is that monetary aggregates
perform better than interest rate measures in the framework of VAR. Among
monetary aggregates, narrow measures of monetary policy perform better than the
larger measures. A third finding of my empirical work is that in the second sub-period
covered (1994-2001), the interest rates become more sensitive to inflation when
compared with the first sub-period (1996-1994). However, the increased
sensitivity of interest rates does not lessen the reactionary character of
monetary aggregates in response to inflation. The fourth finding of my empirical
work is that inflation responds to the innovations in monetary aggregates with a
lag. This lag in the relationship between monetary aggregates and inflation
allows innovations in monetary aggregates to generate short run real effects.
The fifth finding of my empirical work is the existence of a weak bank-lending
channel. Another finding related to the weak banking lending channel finding is
the difficulty in finding a specific role for the free reserves of the banking
sector. The sixth finding of my empirical work is that exchange rate deprecation
is contractionary. Furthermore, we have consistently found that an expansionary
monetary policy leads to a currency appreciation, rather than depreciation. The
final implication of my dissertation is that in Turkey the monetary policy,
specifically in the post-1994 period, has become anti-inflationary, which has
made the policy predictable.
ABSTRACT: This research examines the implications of the Customs Union Agreement with the European Union on Turkish economy. For this purpose, we developed a single country 21-sector computable general equilibrium model, which takes imperfect competition and economies of scale into consideration. The literature suggests that when imperfect competition included into the models, welfare implications of an economic integration differ quantitatively from those reached under the perfect competition paradigm. This involves an assessment of the implications for the structure of production and trade in the Turkish economy.
We quantify the impact on Turkey of two aspects of its new Customs Union Agreement: elimination of both tariffs and non-tariff barriers among the member countries and reduction of external tariffs through implementation of the Common External Tariff of the European Union (full liberalisation case), and elimination of tariffs only together with Common External Tariff reductions (tariffs-only case). These two scenarios are alternatively assessed under perfectly competitive and imperfectly competitive models. Two important conclusions can be drown from our simulated results. First, we find that Customs Union Agreement is beneficial to Turkey in all alternative model cases, however, the imperfectly competitive models result in considerably higher gains compared to perfectly competitive models. Second, if Turkey achieves full liberalisation with the Customs Union Agreement, the economic gains are considerably higher than the tariff removals-only case in all model versions. The sensitivity analysis shows that the results are relatively robust to the way the model is calibrated
ABSTRACT:This dissertation presents evidence on how the US monetary policy shocks have real effects not only domestically, but also abroad. The empirical tests focus on the effects of the US monetary policy innovations on domestic market concentration in manufacturing industries and on economic activity abroad through the international monetary transmission mechanism. The first section of the dissertation uses a vector autoregression technique to illustrate the tendency for the US manufacturing industries to become more concentrated after a contractionary monetary policy shock due to the uneven impact of capital market imperfections on small and large companies. The remaining two sections focuses on the international monetary transmission mechanism. The second section uses data from the G-7 countries to show that an expansionary monetary policy shock in the US reduces domestic and world interest rates, depreciates the dollar, and increases the level of domestic output. The fall in the foreign interest rates and the aggregate demand spillover from the US stimulate foreign output. Thus, an expansionary monetary policy in the US not only increases output and, thereby, asset returns domestically, but also abroad. Finally, the third section presents evidence that the impact of a monetary policy shock in a large country on a small country varies depending on whether that small economy is subject to a fixed exchange rate regime. Using Turkey to represent the small economy and the US and Germany as large economies, this section shows that the effect of an aggregate demand externality is stronger if the small economy pursues a fixed exchange rate regime. In addition, this study shows that three other factors are important in determining the extent of the international monetary transmission mechanism: the level of a country's financial development, its integration with the international financial markets and the synchronization of domestic and foreign business cycles.
ABSTRACT: Scope and Method of Study: There has been
consideration of alternative social
security financing methods
throughout the world during the last two decades. One alternative
adopted in several countries is the privatization of so-called
pay-as-you-go financing systems. The purpose of this study is
Tokyo estimate social benefits and social costs associated with
a Feldsteinian-type gradual privatization of the three Turkish social
security institutions. Based heavily upon data provided by the
International Labor Organization, financial projections of the three
institutions were made and extended to apply benefit-cost models
of privatization. Present values of the change in net social benefit
for each institution were estimated. The effect of privatization on
representative individuals has been quantified for each institution.
Sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the robustness
of the estimates. Findings and Conclusions: Benefit-cost results
indicate that social benefits associated with a privatization alternative
for each of the three
Turkish social security institutions exceed the
social costs even after adjustments for changes in key parameters
that reduce social net benefits. However, privatization affects current
representative individuals so negatively that it may constitute a "good
political reason" to be against, rather than in favor of, choosing privatization.
ABSTRACT:This research examines the aggregate consumption behaviour in the Turkish economy over the period 1951-1995, using both conventional and cointegration time-series techniques. While the former is employed to estimate major theories of consumption in order to test their applicability to the Turkish economy, the latter is mainly used to test our aggregate consumption function developed for Turkey.
The results of cointegration analysis are found to be substantially different from those obtained from conventional econometric techniques. While none of the existing theories seem to fit the data very well, cointegration analysis of our consumption function shows that nominal interest rate, financial wealth, inflation, and financial depth, along with income have significant effects in both the long-run and the short-run.
Our results also indicate that a large percentage of the Turkish consumers are subject to liquidity constraints, which have partly been eased by the financial liberalisation programmes introduced after 1980. The relaxation of liquidity constraints, in turn, has created a positive impact on the consumers’ spending.
Cemal Atici, (2000), “The welfare and distribution impacts of international agricultural trade policies: An analysis of Turkey's integration into the European Union”, PhD, The Louisiana State UNIVERSITY And Agricultural And Mechanical Col.
ABSTRACT:The objective of this dissertation is to examine the agricultural trade policies of Turkey and determine the impact of various relevant policy scenarios on the welfare and distribution of income within the agricultural sector as well as between producers and consumer groups. The main goal of this research is to quantify the impact of trade liberalization resulting from multilateral agricultural trade agreements and the formation of regional trading blocs on Turkish agriculture and, consequently, the income distribution effects in the various producer and consumer groups. The study utilizes a partial equilibrium framework Modele Internationale Simplifie de Simulation (MISS) to analyze the impacts of various policy decisions and scenarios on the welfare of producers, consumers, and the budget. In this study, ten agricultural products that each play significant roles in terms of production, consumption, and trade are examined. These products are; lamb, dairy milk, corn, wheat, rice, oilseeds, cotton, sugar, tobacco, and poultry. Producer and Consumer subsidy equivalents which show overall protection in these sectors, are used to represent the weights perceived by the policy makers. Results show that Turkish Political Preference Function (PPF) values are higher in integration but decreases in free trade. The Nash equilibrium occurred at the point where Turkey chooses integration with the EU while the EU chooses the Agenda 2000 reform provisions. Results also show that distribution of income estimated by the Gini coefficient does not change significantly with freer trade but deteriorates with the integration.
ABSTRACT: In this thesis we investigate the presence and extent of wage discrimination and occupational gender segregation in the Turkish labour market. Cross-section tests of wage discrimination between men and women for occupations, in the following branches of economic activity - manufacturing, mining, and quarrying, electricity, gas and water sectors for the year of 1994 is estimated by econometric methods. Horizontal occupational segregation by gender in the Turkish labour market for the period of 1975-1990, and vertical occupational gender segregation within the Turkish Higher Education Institutes between 1988/89 to 1997/98, is explored by using an alternative index method, which was developed by Karmel and Maclachlan.
The results of discrimination analysis show that there is substantial wage discrimination and occupational segregation between male and female workers in the Turkish labour market. Occupational gender segregation is an important explanation accounting for the wage differences. The findings of this study suggest that labour market discrimination in Turkey emerges from the constrained labour market choices, due to the institutional barriers to female education, training and employment, rather than the free choice of women in the market, as proposed by the human capital theory. Cultural and traditional stereotypes among employers, and in the society as a whole, about the suitable gender characteristics for certain jobs play a very important role in the persistence of discrimination in the Turkish labour market.
Therefore, all these findings indicate that the intervention to eliminate discrimination in Turkey is inevitable. In this study, educational policies are suggested as a very important policy to eliminate discrimination in the Turkish case. Because it will not only increase women’s more equal access to male-dominated occupations, but also help to reduce the discrimination against women, by changing the discriminatory social norms in the society.
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the economic returns to investment in education by applying human capital theory to Turkey. Turkey, one of the least studied of the OECD countries, is an important case considering both its strenuous attempts to modernize and its negotiation of culturally (Islamic) based gender differences. Therefore, given the important role of human capital investment in economic and social development, this study sheds light on factors affecting the economic returns to investment in human capital in Turkey. This study employs three Turkish household surveys: the 1994 household income and consumption expenditure survey (State Institute of Statistics [SIS], 1994), the 1987 household income and consumption expenditure survey (SIS, 1987), and the 1968 household survey (Hacettepe UNIVERSITY, 1968). Using these data, the internal rates of return to schooling are estimated. The social and private rates of return to education are calculated for men and women as well as for each region. The analysis of the data reveals eight main findings. First, social rates of return are lower than private rates of return to investment in schooling. Second, internal rates of return decrease over time with larger decreases for lower levels of schooling and smaller decreases for higher level of schooling. Third, internal rates of return exhibit diminishing returns to human capital. Fourth, the highest rates of return to investment in education are found in elementary schools. Fifth, rates of return to investment in vocational-technical secondary schools are lower than general secondary education. Sixth, women on average obtain lower internal rates of return than do men. Seventh, rates of return to investment in schooling are higher in the Western regions than the Eastern regions, and there is a convergence in the rates of return for higher level of schooling and for gender. Eighth, economic conditions such as the unfavorable labor market conditions, inflation, and international trade have adversely affected the rates of return over time. Still, the rates of return to investment in education are generally high, indicating that the investment in human capital in Turkey proves not only socially beneficial but also profitable to individuals.
ABSTRACT:Home working has recently reemerged in both less-developed and developed countries. It is observed in both unskilled and highly skilled work. In general, there are no estimates of the number of women who bring work into their homes. Home working is part of the informal economy that is disguised and shadowed in the economy. Most of this type of employment is hidden in official statistics. In Turkey, for example the female informal labor force is about 68% (Kumbetoglu, 1993). Most of the work done by the women is piecework, and their earnings depend on the piece-rate. This thesis utilizes existing secondary sources in attempting to explain the participation of Turkish women in the informal economy. It is suggested that through continuous exposure to paid work, women's consciousness will gradually increase and challenge traditional understandings of the subordination concept
Nadolski, Dora J. ,(2000),“The etatist Turkish Republic and its political and socio-economic performance from 1980--1999: A developing state impacted by international organizations and interdependence”, PhD, UNIVERSITY Of Missouri - Kansas City
ABSTRACT:This dissertation explores the impact of exogenous forces on the political and socio-economic institutions prior to, during, and after etatism (state controlled enterprises) in the parliamentary Republic of Turkey. After the third military coup of 1980, Turkey concentrated on political, economic, and social reforms recommended by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, and the European Union. Implementation of these recommendations has assisted Turkeys entry into competitive world markets. This case study of Turkey links an interdependent state, through the mechanisms of international organizations, to those difficult-to-enter, highly specialized, and competitive markets. Interdependence, pluralism, and globalism provide theoretical perspectives and rationale for conducting case study research on a state impacted by international organizations. Methodologically, OECD data, World Bank and EU criteria assist in analyzing the independent variable, nation state interdependence and the dependent variables, Turkey's political, economic and social institutions. The major conclusions are: that interdependence and pluralism explain Turkey's status in the global system of competitive states; that joining international organizations has improved Turkey's institutions, and that Turkey's political institutions comply with World Bank criteria for effective government by implementing OECD recommendations, for economic reform. These economic reforms continue with privatizing State Economic Enterprises (SEEs), curtailing inflation, increasing social security benefits, and standardizing industrial products.
ABSTRACT:This thesis consists of three essays in financial economics. The first chapter is titled as Using Put Warrants in Share Repurchases. I find compared to firms conducting regular repurchases, put warrant users are larger and have more cash. They announce a greater number of buybacks and repurchase a higher percentage of their intended shares. Both the short term and medium term abnormal returns for buybacks with put warrants are significantly higher than for regular buybacks. Finally, put users seem to be able to time their stock price volatility, evidenced by stock price volatility that rises into announcements and falls following the announcement. The results seem to support the signaling hypothesis explanation for abnormal returns following share buyback announcements. The second chapter is titled, “Multiple Buybacks, Completion Patterns and Reputations. I find that the announcement returns following multiple buyback announcements are capitalized to a degree: abnormal returns decrease with each buyback announcement, but remain positive and significant. Firm characteristics seem to lose explanatory power over the abnormal returns with each subsequent buyback, except for announcement size. I also find that announcement returns are negatively correlated with subsequent repurchases. However, announcement returns for later announcements are positively correlated with repurchases made following the previous announcement, which suggests a “reputation” effect in multiple buybacks. The results support the signaling hypothesis over the agency explanation for abnormal returns following share buyback announcements. The third chapter is titled as;Impact of corporate governance and foreign trading on firm returns during crises: the case of Turkey, co-authored with Serkan Savasoglu. We show that corporate governance and foreign ownership measures have additional explanatory power over fundamental variables for the cross-section of Turkish stock returns in the 1998 crisis. Firms with higher accounting standards and better management have higher crisis abnormal returns. Ownership structures that are less prone to expropriation risk are also associated with better stock price performance. Using the average foreign trading volume before the crisis as a proxy for pre-crisis foreign ownership levels, we also conclude that higher foreign ownership leads to lower crisis abnormal returns. The final outcome depends on which effect dominates.
ABSTRACT:The Asian economic crisis has reinforced the importance of efficient financial markets for sustained real investment and economic growth, yet there is still limited empirical research on the effects of the deregulation of financial markets on the firm's investment decisions. The purpose of this thesis is to model the impact of financial reforms on borrowing constraints faced by firms and to test the impact of financial reforms on the investment decisions of firms in Turkey. To do so, the thesis builds a dynamic investment model, where financial variables and real investment are linked through the net present value of the firm. A contribution of this thesis rests on the specification of the financial distress function. Whereas the literature uses a quadratic functional form for the cost of distress, we, instead, assume that the firm faces a risk premium over and above the riskless interest rate. The risk premium is linear in the level of debt. The derived investment model is employed to test whether Turkey's efforts at financial liberalization in 1980 were able to relax the borrowing constraints faced by Turkish firms. A dynamic panel data methodology is used on a panel data set of 1036 Turkish firms over the 1983 and 1986 period. In addition, time series analysis is employed on Turkish aggregate data over the 1971 and 1991 period. This study is the first to test the impact of financial liberalization on borrowing constraints by using Turkish firm level data. The current literature offers limited empirical research on firm level investment in a developing country. The results from both panel data and time series data analyses indicate that the financial reforms did not relax the borrowing constraints for Turkish firms. In the post-reform period, medium Finns still faced both an increasing premium and credit rationing. Large firms faced an increasing premium but no credit rationing. There is no evidence of an increasing premium nor credit rationing for small firms.
ABSTRACT:This thesis consists of three essays in financial economics. The first chapter is titled “ADR Arbitrage.” The time series of ADR (American Depositary Receipt) arbitrage profits support a limited arbitrage explanation. First, arbitrage profits are increasing in the idiosyncratic risk of the arbitrage position, which is a function of the standard deviation of past arbitrage profits. Second, arbitrage profits are increasing in arbitrageurs' exposure to ADR arbitrage. Third, arbitrage profits are increasing in portfolio flows into a country if the ADR is already trading at a premium. Finally, ADR arbitrage returns are higher following periods of larger mispricings in the on-the-run versus off-the-run U.S. Treasury bond market. The second chapter is titled “Limited arbitrage in mergers and acquisitions, co-authored with Malcolm Baker. The portfolio return to risk arbitrage has an abnormal return of about one percent per month for the full sample period. The cross-section of risk arbitrage positions allows us to explain this abnormal return. Consistent with limited arbitrage and inconsistent with a transaction cost theory, we find that excess returns are increasing in target size and post-announcement trading volume. Also, the idiosyncratic risk of deal completion and the supply of arbitrage capital influence returns. When arbitrageurs' equity holdings fall, subsequent risk arbitrage returns rise. We conclude that limited arbitrage plays a role in the market pricing of merger and acquisition offers. The third chapter is titled as;Impact of corporate governance and foreign trading on firm returns during crises: the case of Turkey, co-authored with Osman Nalbantoglu. We show that corporate governance and foreign ownership measures have additional explanatory power over fundamental variables for the cross-section of Turkish stock returns in the 1998 crisis. Firms with higher accounting standards and better management have higher crisis abnormal returns. Ownership structures that are less prone to expropriation risk are also associated with better stock price performance. Using the average foreign trading volume before the crisis as a proxy for pre-crisis foreign ownership levels, we also conclude that higher foreign ownership leads to lower crisis abnormal returns. The final outcome depends on which effect dominates.
ABSTRACT:The aim of this work is to forecast events (crises) in emerging markets. We introduce a novel approach in the speculative attack literature: we estimate exchange rate events and interest rate events, not by combining them in an index (as in mainstream empirical literature), but by estimating them simultaneously. We therefore develop and implement a system that produces one-month ahead probabilities of simultaneous events in the exchange rate and in the money markets. The development of the model was completed in three main stages: the selection of variables, the simultaneous estimation, and the implementation of the model. These stages are discussed separately in three chapters. Chapter 1. Identifying the causes of exchange rate and interest rate events. We run regional as well as global regressions that attempt to estimate separately the two events. An exchange rate event is a dummy that takes the value of 1 if the exchange rate depreciation exceeds 10%. An interest rate event is a dummy that takes the value of 1 if the increase in the key intervention rate exceeds 500 basis points. Three conclusions were drawn from this stage: first, the variables that cause events do not greatly change from one region to another. It is therefore acceptable to pool across regions in order to take advantage of a higher ratio of events to non-events episodes. Second, first-generation variables, mainly domestic credit expansion, are as important in the nineties as they were in the seventies and early eighties. Last but not least, as shown by the regional Asia regression, the Asian 1997 crisis was about financial excess. The lending boom, manifested in a surge of claims on the private sector that was not matched by a parallel surge in GDP growth, was the most significant variable. Chapter 2. Estimating simultaneously exchange rate and interest rate events. We know from theory and practice that an interest rate increase is an important factor in the determination of an exchange rate event. We also know that the decision of whether to devalue or not has important implications on the interest rate front. Therefore, a logical step would be to estimate simultaneously and not separately the two events. We implement a technique suggested by Amemiya and we find that the simultaneous estimation improves significantly the results in terms of type 1 vs. type 2 error. In both cases, the coefficient on the simultaneous event turns out to be the most significant of all variables. It also has a positive sign in the two regressions, suggesting that the increase in the probability of one event, simultaneously increases the probability of the other. This provides a strong argument against the interest rate defense policy, and it holds even when the definition of a defense is altered to consider different levels. Chapter 3. Forecasting exchange rate and interest rate events. The model is extended to include several definitions of the exchange rate events. In addition to the 10%, we consider 5%, 15%, 20% and 25% devaluation levels. As the level of depreciation increases, contagion variables gradually loose their significance and fundamentals become more significant. We suggest a method of evaluating the forecasted probabilities by comparing them to action triggers that were obtained from the in-sample maximization of a return function. We then apply and test the model out of sample where it captures both the Russian (1998) and the Brazilian (1999) crises. It performs also well in capturing non-event episodes when applied to Turkey.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation, based on Ottoman, British, French, German, American and Turkish archival and published primary sources, is the story of capitalist development in Southern Anatolia in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The economic history of the Ottoman Çukurova revolves around an analysis of the expansion of trade and agriculture during the age of world trade expansion. The processes of commercialization at work between 1800–1908 in the Çukurova reveal one of the most radical nineteenth century transformations in the Ottoman Empire. My focus on the regional changes that paved the way for the emergence of large-scale cotton agriculture in a largely nomadic geography emphasizes the interaction between local and international forces of commercial development, rather than state policy. These forces began to take shape during the Egyptian Rule in the Çukurova after which the region went through a period of slump that the state did not/could not help change despite its modernizing reforms. The reforms of the Empire reached the region only after world demand for cotton during the American Civil War prompted it. In the aftermath of the 1860s, the most important state action involved the settlement of tribes and immigrants in the Çukurova which took about thirty years to culminate in an agriculturally settled populace. Most important was the development of a port-city that facilitated the integration of the Çukurova to the world economy. The merchants of the region, successfully connected to world markets, accumulated large amounts of capital between the 1870s and 1890s which was mostly invested in large-scale cotton agriculture. By the end of the nineteenth century, a landholding class made of tribal elements and non-Muslims emerged and turned the Çukurova into the most important cotton producing region of the Empire. This regional study of the development of capitalist agriculture is part and parcel of the Republican history as the Çukurova became one of the richest regions of Turkey in the 1950s. This dissertation analyzes the first part of an uninterrupted process of capital accumulation that transcended the collapse of the Empire and the emergence of a nation-state regime.
ABSTRACT:The fiscal balances of the state vary widely among developing countries. In some developing countries, fiscal deficits are both extensive and persistent, while in others they remain negligible or modest. By examining three democratic middle-income countries (Turkey, Brazil, and Poland), this study shows that this variance is largely determined by the nature of a country's major political parties and the style of their leadership. In Turkey, the party system is dominated by populist/catchall parties having a strong central leadership which is able to command a great deal of loyalty. The leaders of these parties appeal to the electorate through direct mobilization. They also attempt to incorporate large segments of society at the national level through the distribution of extensive public resources to popular sectors such as workers and farmers. Therefore, fiscal balances in Turkey have been characterized by high and persistent deficits. In Brazil, a clientelist party system is dominant. This type of system is characterized by political parties that act as vehicles of pork-barrel politics with a narrow constituency focus at the subnational level. The central leadership of Brazilian parties is weak and local party patrons have considerable autonomy to mobilize their constituencies through a patron-client relationship, rather than through the distribution of public resources to broad segments of society. Because targeted constituencies are narrow, resources allocated for the purpose of electoral mobilization are limited. As a result, fiscal deficits in Brazil have remained modest. In post-communist Poland, unlike in Turkey and Brazil, the major political parties do not rely on the vertical mobilization of the masses, neither through populism nor clientelism. Instead, Polish parties attempt to mobilize the electorate around certain moral and cultural issues. In addition, the leadership of most Polish parties delegates decision making to fiscally conservative technocrats when confronted with economic concerns and issues. Therefore, one observes low fiscal deficits in Poland.
Hatice Deniz Yenal, (2000), “Weaving a market: The informal economy and gender in a transnational trade network between Turkey and the former Soviet Union”, PhD, STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BINGHAMTON.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation studies the emergence and development of informal trade between Turkey and the former Soviet Union (FSU) particularly Russia in the last decade of the twentieth century. It examines the economic structure of this trade network as well as the entrepreneurial activities of, and the gendered social relations between, its culturally diverse actors in Istanbul and Moscow. Shuttle trade has emerged and developed as a small-scale entrepreneurial activity spanning many countries, from production and shopkeeping in Turkey to wholesaling and retailing in the FSU. All of these activities are characterized by a high degree of informality. This study seeks to locate the phenomenon of shuttle trade within the ungoing transformations in the world economy. It argues that, given its characteristics, shuttle trade cannot be explained either by the current conceptualizations of globalization, or by reference to the informal economy literature. Rather, it constitutes a transnational informal economy, which can be conceptually elaborated in terms of Fernand Braudel's notion of the stratification of economic life. The dissertation specifically examines the economic and cultural interactions between the male shopkeepers in Istanbul and the predominantly female shuttle traders from the FSU. It also studies entrepreneurship within this transnational market and the process of capital accumulation. It scrutinizes the relationship between the upper circuits of global economic flows and small-scale transnational trade exemplified by shuttle trade.
ABSTRACT:Money plays an important role in the economic health of a nation. The amount of money in the economy matters because it affects real variables (output, employment) and/or nominal variables (price level). Monetarist view suggests that a target growth rate for a narrow definition of money be set so that a stable (and low) rate of inflation could be achieved. This is possible if the demand for money is stable and changes in the monetary base have a predictable impact on money supply. Therefore, the performance of a monetary aggregate is examined through a money demand specification and/or as an effective monetary target in the conduct of monetary policy. Empirical work in the 1970s showed that broad monetary aggregates like M2 were closely correlated with such potential policy target variables as output, unemployment and inflation. Several countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States declared monetary aggregates as intermediate targets. By mid-1980s however, the stability of money demand relationship was questioned and the target growth rates of monetary aggregates became unpredictable. Monetary authorities were forced to abandon monetary targeting or monitor monetary aggregates as economic policy indicators along with other variables like inflation and interest rates. The poor performance of monetary aggregates and the instability of money demand functions were attributed to financial innovations, inadequate econometric methodology and restrictive conventional framework of the analysis. Under such circumstances, Barnett (1980) suggested the microfoundations approach and his subsequent work has shown that weighted monetary aggregates could outperform simple-sum monetary aggregates. The theoretical framework of the microfoundations approach derives from monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers. This approach constructs new monetary aggregates and compares their performance with simple-sum monetary aggregates. This dissertation empirically investigates the microfoundations approach for four of the G-7 countries (Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and United States) and a developing country (Turkey), using, cointegration analysis, stability test and Granger-causality. My results indicate the superiority of microfoundations approach in all of the countries.
ABSTRACT:This study focuses on the cult of the peasant, advocated by the Turkish ruling elite as the most important constituent element of Kemalist populism from the early 1930s through the end of World War II. Embodied in the so-called peasantist [<italic>köycü</italic>] ideology and practices, the advocates in Turkey of the cult of the peasant, among other things, denied class-based ideologies; aspired to a static, undifferentiated society; attempted to find a mass base for nationalism in a predominantly agrarian country while preempting grass-roots movements; feared and vilified socialist revolution; recognized the need to respond to the demands of the agrarian population in the troubled times of the Great Depression; aimed to consolidate the conservatism of the regime by relying on the supposedly conservative fabric of the Turkish peasants; and inspired a nationalist myth-making process that sought the “real” Turk in villages. In light of the intellectual history of the peasantist ideology, this study examines the People’s Houses, the Village Institutes, land reform, and the literature of early Republican era; and by so doing, challenges conventional historiographical assessments about these issues. The peasantist activities of the People’s Houses ended in a fiasco because of its inherent bureaucratic and elitist nature. The Village Institutes, although started with conservative concerns, turned out to challenge the limits of governing elite’s populist tolerance, and perhaps because of this reason they were closed. Likewise, the land reform attempts of the single-party regime, contrary to what have been argued about them, were attempts to attach the peasants to their villages, broaden the size of the propertied peasant class, limit mobility in the countryside and immigration to the cities, and prevent the spread of leftist and radical movements by winning the support of small peasants. The overall conclusion from these different, but related intellectual pursuits and practices points to the fact that such peasantist practices of the single-party regime should be perceived as a “conservative” rather than a “progressive” modernization. The dissertation also discusses the peasantist ideologies of Germany and Bulgaria of the inter-war era in order to shed light into the peculiarities of the Turkish case.
ABSTRACT:Capital flight was a major economic concern during the early eighties. More recently, events in South America, Asia, and elsewhere have shown that it remains an important issue for individual countries and the entire world. Given the issue's importance, there is an extensive amount of literature on capital Right on the subject but there is still not a common definition of capital flight. The study reviews the major definitions and estimates the determinants of capital flight in Turkey from 1971–1995. In early studies, the major reasons for capital flight were high inflation, overvaluation of currencies and interest rate differences between the country under study and the United States. Using the five major capital flight measures with Turkish economic data reveals that four definitions (World Bank, Morgan Guaranty, Cline, and Dooley) yield similar results while the Cuddington method differs significantly. In this study, capital controls in the country, deficit to GNP ratio, overvaluation of the Turkish Lira and real and nominal interest rate differentials between Turkey and Germany are revealed to be the key determinants for capital flight from Turkey. The results show that capital control, overvaluation of the currency, high deficit-GNP ratio and nominal interest rate differences enter the equation significantly with the expected signs. Real interest rate differentials do not appear to be a significant factor in determining capital flight from Turkey. The study also looks at the effect of political instability on capital flight, the results are insignificant.
ABSTRACT:Following the debt crisis, the composition of capital flows changed in favor of foreign direct investment (FDI). Simultaneously there was an outgrowth of literature on the determinants of FDI. Most of this work focused on exchange rates, tax rates and locational advantages, but for the large part ignored inflation. This study intends to fill this vacuum. The investment decision of a multinational firm (MNF) is modeled and simulated using US investments in Turkey and Canada as two case studies. The first part consists of a theoretical model based on the dynamic optimization problem of a representative agent, in a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy. The agent is a MNF. Following Lucas' (1982) timing structure, the MNF chooses consumption and investment both at the home and host country. Money is introduced through cash-in-advance constraints to capture the real effects of inflation. In this framework, home country inflation acts as a tax on labor supply and domestic investment, while host country inflation acts as a tax on FDI. Additionally the MNF substitutes foreign (domestic) for domestic (foreign) investment as domestic (foreign) inflation increases. The general formulation of taxes allows analysis of the effects of different tax laws on the investment and repatriation decisions of the MNF. All cases show that increased domestic (foreign) taxes reduce domestic (foreign) investment, shifting it to foreign (domestic) investments. The main changes happen in the repatriation decisions of the MNF. The theoretical model is applied to US investments in Canada, a low inflation country, and Turkey, a high inflation country. Den Haan and Marcet's (1991) parametrized expectations method is utilized to obtain numerical solutions. The solutions are used in simulating US investments in Canada and Turkey. Both simulations provide moments of variables that are consistent with the actual data. The results from an impulse response analysis supports the theoretical model, showing a 3% increase in Canadian inflation reducing US FDI in Canada by 2% and increasing US domestic investment by 1%. Similarly a 7% increase in Turkish inflation reduces US FDI in Turkey by 1.9%, increasing US domestic investment by 0.3%.
ABSTRACT:Using a cascade model that builds upon Kuran's dual preference model, and developing an explanation for private identity formation, the dissertation provides a theory of how ethnic hatreds are endogenously produced by ethnic polarization. The explanation is then applied to ethnic relations in the former Yugoslavia and Turkey. The dissertation explains how privately held ethnic identities, and their public expressions change in response to intrinsic and extrinsic incentives available in a society's institutional environment. Implications for multiculturalism and for ethnic and racial relations in the US and others are also discussed. <italic>Ethnic polarization </italic>is the diffusion of a certain image that portrays ethnic identities as mutually exclusive and incompatible with belonging to the same nation. The diffusion of this <italic>divisive image </italic> results from the interaction of cognitive and social processes. Ethnic polarization can sometimes occur in private only, as people suppress their public support for the divisive image through <italic>downward ethnic preference falsification</italic>. Alternatively, people can publicly exaggerate their sympathy for the divisive image through <italic>upward preference falsification </italic>. The degree of ethnic preference falsification, the degree to which information dissemination is monopolized, the activities of ethnic entrepreneurs, and the number of social reference groups in society affect the likelihood and severity of polarization. The explanation yields several policy implications. Restrictions upon the public expressions of ethnic identities are shown to contribute to subsequent radical polarization, unless the restrictions are backed by long-term policies that reduce downward preference falsification. Comprehensive restrictions on ethnic activity implemented to stem polarization may in fact increase private polarization if they disproportionately affect ethnic activities that promote a compatible image. Cognitive, social and economic incentives that encourage the cultivation of an ethnic image portraying ethnic identities as mutually inclusive and compatible with the same national identity reduce the possibility of ethnic polarization. Finally, the dissertation shows that ethnic entrepreneurs who promote the divisive image in order to prop up their group members' ethnic identity may inadvertently encourage the assimilation of their co-ethnics into the dominant ethnic group in their society.
ABSTRACT:While average levels of inflation have been constantly declining in the industrial countries, developing countries have been plagued with higher levels of inflation and inflation uncertainty. The adverse effects of inflation uncertainty on financial markets (Mexico 1986–89, Turkey 1979–81, etc.) have attracted substantial research attention. This analysis advances the inflation uncertainty literature by adding the possibility of excess demand to facilitate examination of the impact of uncertainty upon both sides of credit markets. An excess demand model not only provides a more precise characterization of the effects of inflation uncertainty on loan demand and supply, but also yields different coefficient values due to the Lucas critique. Rather than using credit rationing or inflexible price arguments in the creation of disequilibrium, the ensuing analysis utilizes the interaction of stochastic loan repayment and risk aversion as grounds for disequilibrium. This creates a non-monotonic loan supply and a basis for excess demand in credit markets enabling us to analyze both sides of the credit market even when the demand is unobservable. With this approach, banks are affected by a combination of credit and interest rate risks while firms face real return uncertainty. In such a setting inflation uncertainty adversely affects both sides of the market. Empirical results support the backward bending loan supply claim for some of the countries used in the analysis. Examining firm responses toward the variance of returns shows the existence of risk-averse behavior in financial firms. In addition to these findings, inflation uncertainty seems to affect the credit markets either indirectly through its impact on loan rates or directly by quantity effects. With a view toward previous assertions in the model concerning both sides being adversely affected, the magnitudes of the changes are aggregated to exhibit increases in disequilibrium. with higher inflation fluctuations. The effect of financial market liberalization on disequilibrium is also analyzed to demonstrate that deregulation alone does not ensure credit market equilibrium, but has to be accompanied by measures to reduce uncertainty levels. Finally, the results of all estimations are compared for developing and developed country financial markets.
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this study is to investigate the possible existence of earning differentials between male and female teachers in Turkey. The main question is whether or not there is a wage gap between male and female teachers when human capital variables are held constant. In the literature, there are studies that indicate that males and females are earning differently. These differences between male and female earnings have been explained by the differences in human capital that males and females accumulate. In the private sector, human capital explanations can work but in the government sector where every one is a civil servant and supposedly is paid equally, this explanation does not work. In Turkey, teachers are civil servants and paid by the central government under a rigid salary schedule. This study explores wage inequality between sexes in the government sector. There are two samples examined in this study. The national sample includes data from combined elementary school (G1–G8), middle schools and high schools. It does not contain data from independent elementary schools (G1–G5). The second sample comes from an urban city, Ankara. There are 6 schools in the smaller sample: 2 G1–G8 schools, 2 regular high schools and 2 technical high schools. The two samples could not be merged because they did not have an identical variable that would allow for a linked data set. Thus, the national sample is used to describe the general population and the smaller sample is used to explore salary differences between male and female teachers. Five Ordinary Linear Regression models are performed. The first model explores salary difference between sexes. Second level models are created to investigate the variables that affect salary indirectly: derece<super>1</super> and school types in which the teachers work. In the first model, sex does not affect salary significantly but salary is powerfully affected by the derece variable. In the second model, derece is affected by sex, which shows the indirect effect of sex on salary through derece. Type of schools where the teachers work also make difference in salary. Regular high school and elementary school teachers are paid lower than the technical school teachers. Hence, this study concludes that even under a very rigid salary schedule, gender is still playing a role. How much a teacher is paid is affected by gender not directly but indirectly through the other variables. <super>1</super>Derece is the place on the salary schedule. In its original form, it starts from 9 to 1 and lower numbers mean higher in salary and higher numbers mean lower salary. In model 2, it is used in original form, but for other analysis, three dichotomous variables are created, D321, D654, D987.
ABSTRACT:The primary objective of this dissertation is to empirically investigate profitability performance in Turkish banking. In view of Turkey's long-standing and on-going relationship with the European Union (EU), the study is carried out within the context of the European single market for financial services. This context leads to several interesting questions, such as: "is market structure or efficiency the major determinant of profitability performance"; and "how best can the high level of inflation in Turkey be accounted for when measuring profitability performance?". The first question is particularly interesting from the perspective of the likely increases in competition that would follow if Turkish financial markets were to integrate with those of Europe. The second question is pertinent since variable and high levels of inflation over any period can lead to significant distortion of financial statements and hence, the most common measures of profitability. This dissertation appears to be the first study to employ all of the techniques described below to analyse the profitability of Turkish banking in the light of such questions.
A significant amount of background analysis is required to achieve comprehensive answers to the questions raised above. This first involves an overview of the relationship between Turkey and the EU, and analysis of the Turkish economy and financial system. In addition to being of independent interest, such analysis suggests a suitable time-frame upon which to base this work. Ultimately, the time-frame 1989-1995 is chosen, since it was in 1989 that Turkish financial institutions gained considerable freedom in terms of international market activities, allowing them to truly benefit from the liberalisation programmes of the 1980s. Further to this fundamental background, the analysis of profitability performance necessitates a detailed analysis of the banking industry as a whole. This is carried out for the Turkish banking industry via vertical and horizontal analysis of aggregate balance sheet data. Such analysis identifies major characteristics of the industry and as such, it facilitates the assessment of profitability performance and the construction of empirical models to test for the relationships between profitability, market structure and efficiency in Turkish banking. In addition to financial statement analysis, the intermediation role of banks, the effect of public sector borrowing requirements and currency substitution are also discussed. Comparisons are made with EU banking industries as a benchmark.
ABSTRACT:Protected areas have been promoted globally as a solution to biodiversity loss. However, they have resulted in local conflicts by adversely impacting local communities who depend on the protected resources and who become hostile towards conservation efforts when denied access to and control over these resources. Local participation is now viewed as crucial to avoiding local conflict in protected areas. However, most attempts at participation around the world have been top-down and paternalistic, fearing that once empowered to make their own decisions, local communities will decide not to pursue conservation goals. This fear is based on the assumption that there is an inherent disjuncture between global environmental concerns and local interests, and that local communities are unaware of nature's value and therefore unconcerned with and opposed to nature conservation. This dissertation investigates the validity of this assumption in the context of the Goksu Delta Protected Special Area (PSA) in Turkey and shows that it does not hold. It evaluates the prospects for local participation in nature conservation in the PSA based on the attitudes of local communities toward nature conservation in general and the PSA in particular. Moreover, it documents the socio-economic presence of the communities and proposes ways to incorporate this presence into conservation efforts while minimizing its environmental impacts. Results show that local communities both in and outside the PSA value nature in general and want Turkey's nature to be protected. However, communities outside the PSA are more likely to contribute to conservation efforts in the PSA. Communities within are less supportive of the PSA because they are adversely impacted by it. Measures to reduce the adverse impacts of the PSA may help enlist support for the PSA from within. However, such measures can succeed only if they address the prior rights, needs and wants of these communities. Genuine local participation in nature conservation will occur only when the communities are empowered to make the decisions that influence their lives and their environment. For this to happen, conservation managers must understand local values and attitudes, regard local communities as 'allies' and learn to trust them.
ABSTRACT:As the size of the elderly population increases, the world's publicly managed pay-as-you-go systems, where the current retirees support the current pensioners, are experiencing a growing burden of financial problems. In response to these trends, many countries, including Turkey, are examining alternative pension system arrangements. This study analyzes the financial implications of alternative forms of pension reform in Turkey. The study builds a simulation model to evaluate the current condition and the future evolution of the existing Turkish pension system. The results show that the current pay-as-you-go system in Turkey is financially bankrupt and cannot be sustained with its existing parameters. The model is then used to study the financial implications of improving the parameters of the current system, such as increasing the retirement ages, decreasing the benefit levels, increasing the contribution rates, or combinations of the three. The simulations conclude that increasing the retirement ages can improve the financial condition of the system in the short-run. However, more radical improvements in a combination of the parameters are required to ensure long-run solvency. This study also evaluates the financial implications of privatizing the pension system in Turkey and uses the simulation model to measure the transition costs of moving from the current public pay-as-you-go system to a Chilean-style mandatory personal savings scheme. The results show that the transition costs of a radical transformation to a private system can be substantial, unless the parameters of the Turkish system is improved before starting the privatization process. The study then uses option pricing methods to determine the government insurance costs associated with the privatization scenario. The results highlight the importance of a careful management of the government insurance business through asset restrictions and hedging requirements in order to keep the potentially high costs of the government guarantee to a minimum.
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the time varying integration versus segmentation question for a number of emerging stock markets including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Turkey vis-a-vis a global developed stock markets, and discuss the various issues regarding the volatility, and the predictability of the emerging stock market portfolio returns using both global and domestic information variables. I also analyzed the effect of time varying integration of the stock markets on return and risk of the investment of emerging markets. In this model expected returns, risks (variances and covariances), price of the risks, and integration measure are time varying. The variances in the model are calculated monthly by using ARCH (Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). Integration measure is formulated as logistic function of the local information variables, and takes the values between zero and one. I find the evidence supporting the hypothesis that all five countries in my sample are becoming more integrated with developed stock markets. As emerging stock markets become more integrated, their stock returns would response to same information variables as developed stock markets do.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation investigates issues concerning export quotas and tariffs within a general equilibrium (GE) framework, under assumptions of both perfect and imperfect competitive markets, when trade is all intraindustry. The dissertation addresses important, though relatively neglected, contemporary trade policy issues in the developing world, such as Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) and optimal export taxes. Given the complexity of the GE analysis with increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition, I also employ computational techniques in order to better understand the economic implications of trade policies, especially with regard to the impact on welfare, which is often analytically ambiguous. The empirical analysis has been applied to Turkey, being a middle-income developing country which still applies high tariffs and export quotas. However, the empirical findings have a wider application. Firstly, I provide a different rationale from the standard literature as to why VERs are accepted by exporting firms. The essence of the argument is that a VER serves as an institution to prevent entry and, therefore, to protect the monopoly power of incumbent firms in both domestic and export markets. The impact on social welfare is indeterminate. However, numerical results for Turkey support the conjecture that with the elimination of a VER an exporting country is worse off, and that this welfare loss is larger, the smaller the country in question. Secondly, I argue that an export tax, considered to be optimal in a partial equilibrium (PE) framework, might be sub-optimal in a GE setting. In fact, all numerical simulations support the view that the PE export tax leads to a social welfare loss. I also demonstrate analytically that the PE formula is upwardly biased. Finally, a further issue has been analysed, which refers to the impact of regional agreements on income distribution and employment, which are two of the most contentious issues among economists and policy-makers, in the areas of tariffs and quotas. Given the complexity of the analysis in a multi-household and multi-factor framework, I apply a GE model with constant returns to scale and perfect competition to study the impact on welfare, income distribution and employment of the recent customs union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union (EU) on the Turkish economy. The numerical results indicate that the CU is not trade diverting. Most importantly, this agreement might substantially raise income inequality between urban and rural household members, suggesting that analysis based only on assumptions, which characterise the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, might be misleading. In addition, the CU favour the creation of 148 thousands new jobs, mainly with basic skills. So, in conclusion, I argue that (i) VERs are agreed to protect the monopoly power of incumbent firms and to enhance possibly the welfare of the exporting country; (ii) export taxes are upwardly biased and non-optimal; (iii) the regional agreement with the EU raises Turkish employment and might raise income inequality among household members.
ABSTRACT:This thesis analyses liberal policies which were introduced to Turkey by the Ozal governments and which had great effects on all aspects of Turkish life economy, politics and society. The liberalisation process started with the 24 January 1980 economic measures, which meant a new direction for the statist Turkish economy. This process was one of the manifestations of a new ideology about the role of the state in Turkey.
As a result of these policies, Turkish economic management has radically shifted towards export-oriented economic policies and programmes. To overcome the restrictions on the economy, many policies and regulatory changes have been implemented. Government intervention on the overall economy has been significantly reduced, price controls have been removed and exports have been encouraged. Briefly, the economy has become more liberal than ever before, though the process has not been fully completed.
The thesis looks at the current political and bureaucratic structure which derives from the 1982 Constitution and wider political and constitutional changes under the Ozal governments in Turkey, examining them as a set of doctrines and as a set of policy goals within the context of Motherland Party politics in the 1980s. This includes an evaluation of their relationship to neo-Liberal ideas, and also their effectiveness. Although the Ozal government failed to introduce a democratic and liberal constitution in the end, there is no question that Turkey is a more open and a more democratic country than it was 10 or 15 years ago.
On the other hand, Turkey has witnessed the explosive emergence of civil societal associations as a major collective agent in various activities as a result of new political, social and especially economic policies under the neo-liberal paradigm of reducing and restructuring the state. Moreover, these policies have a considerable impact on the political values of the masses, as the 1991 World Values Survey suggests. A quantitative analysis of this survey in Turkey discussed in chapter seven highlights political value changes during the Ozal period.
ABSTRACT:Turkey has recently applied to become a member of the European Union (EU). The ultimate goal is full membership of the EU and with this application Turkey is obliged to undertake changes to the structure of the economy as a means of preparing for membership. Turkey's integration into the EU will result in the strict adoption of certain EU principles. In particular, all applicants are expected to adopt EU fiscal structures, for example the use of VAT as the main turnover tax. With regard to this, Turkey introduced VAT in 1985 even before her membership and followed the developments in the EU as far as VAT harmonisation is concerned.
For Turkey, harmonisation as currently envisaged will involve an upward increase in VAT rates. The rise in the rates and changes in the structures of Turkish VAT will naturally affect the Turkish economy as a result of harmonisation. In this study, we analyse the effects of changes on the Turkish economy in the structure and rates of VAT to the levels proposed by the European Commission in 1987. Therefore, we develop a computable general equilibrium tax model of the Turkish economy to simulate the effects of VAT harmonisation with the EU on mainly relative prices, resource allocation, and income distribution and welfare changes between the households, by using information contained in the Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey constructed for 1990.
We have simulated the effects of the tax policy changes considering three possible scenarios. Simulation results suggest that the tax policy changes would have small effects on production sectors relative to consumption sectors. Regarding production side, the changes would lead to a general price increase in many sectors.
ABSTRACT:This thesis examines the European Community's (EC's) policy-making process in the area of external relations within an analytical framework that attempts at transcending the difficulties encountered in either state-centric (Realist/Neo-realist/International Regimes) or society-centric (Functionalist/Neo-functionalist) approaches to European integration. The proposed analytical framework is based on state-society interaction and the implications of (i) the nature of policy issues and (ii) the extent of centrifugal societal tendencies for that interaction. The nature of policy issues refers to the degree of transparency/divisibility that makes the policy issue compatible with the construction of package deals, while centrifugal societal tendencies refer to the extent of societal pressure that the member-states are faced with in relation to a certain policy issue. The thesis argues that the Community's policy-making process in the area of external relations will tend to be 'integrative' and the policy stance will tend to be less exclusionist as the indices of transparency/divisibility and centrifugal societal tendencies increase. In this framework, EC external policy-making is neither a linear and cumulative process determined by the exigencies of a 'spill-over' logic nor an erratic series of intergovernmental compromises: it is determined by a primordial tendency for convergence among national policy-making processes as a result of state-society interaction.
Following the development of the analytical framework, the thesis examines the Community's policy-making process in relation to trade in sensitive sectors (agriculture and textiles), human rights, immigration, and the Cyprus problem - in terms of both general evolution and in the specific context of EC-Turkey association. The findings lend support to the analytical framework and certain propositions that can be derived from it.
ABSTRACT:Governance is a neglected concept in the economics and social sciences literature concerned with competitiveness. My objective in this thesis is to suggest a way to demonstrate its significance in relation to the textile and apparel (henceforth, T&A) chain in Turkey. The period of concern to my thesis is post-1980 era with a natural end point of the completion of the customs union with the EU at the end of 1995. My overall approach can be described as integral economics.
My thesis initially deploys a commodity chain approach in narrow economic terms to highlight the divisions in T&A. But it goes beyond this narrow economic approach by exploring the political economy of power relations. I show that while exchange relations create both conflicts and interdependence in the chain and thereby influence competition, co-operation and complementarity within it (e.g. in the cotton link and between textile and apparel), power relations outside the chain (e.g. in manufacturing more generally and among production-commerce-finance and labour-business-state) also significantly affect valorisation. In this context, I show the significance of regulation and governance for the T&A chain by illustrating the role of governance practices' and their contribution to social and socio-economic cohesion in establishing and securing competitiveness. I particularly show how the economic, political and social environment of the chain is regulated to promote expanded T&A production and to improve the prospects of EU integration both economically and politically. In this regard, there is a marked interdependence between the interests of T&A and those of the Turkish state. Thus, I explore how the dynamic of the T&A sector is shaped by the specificities of the Turkish 'developmental' state and how the sector is integrated in turn into the modernisation project of the state in different phases of this development.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation is an empirical attempt to discover characteristics of bidder behavior in Treasury bill auctions. The dataset we use includes participant-identified bids in 29 discriminatory auctions from Turkey. The complexity of the auction environment, the lack of a firm theoretical framework and the heterogeneity of market participants present a real challenge for a sound analysis of this dataset. In the first part of the dissertation, reduced form econometric models are estimated to test the implications of the theory on common value first-price sealed-bid auctions, as there does not exist a satisfactory theoretical model of discriminatory Treasury bill auctions. Results suggest that the bidders mark down their bid prices more as the expected dispersion of opinion about the true value of the bill increases, as is the case in the simple analogue of the Treasury bill auctions. It is also the case that as the number of bidders increases in these auctions, increased competition overcomes the considerations of winner's curse, and the bidders mark down their bid prices less if they expect high participation in these auctions. We also show that the Treasury benefits from a policy of revealing any information that will reduce the uncertainty about the true value of the bills, provided that the bidding strategies remain unchanged. The information spillover from the auction to the secondary market is also documented in this part. In the second part of the dissertation, we adopt an alternative econometric approach to the study of the Treasury bill auctions. The approach is reduced form in the descriptive analysis of the behavior of the agents and is structural in the analysis of the equilibrium implications of these. We break down the complicated decision problem of the bidder into its components and analyze each of the components separately. The main finding from this part of the dissertation is that the dataset can be characterized by the bidders' use of a simple decision rule: Bidders can be described as forming minimum and maximum bid prices based on the result of the previous auction held by the Treasury, then picking a random number of prices in this interval and deciding on the bid quantities. This decision rule, coupled with the Treasury's interest rate targeting policy, performs remarkably well in mimicking both the market outcomes and the bidder-specific statistics. The last part of the dissertation builds upon the main finding from the previous part. We analyze the performance of a single-bid decision rule for a specific bidder in the simulated data, given the bidding decisions of the remaining bidders. Our results indicate that the single-bid decision rule based on the primary source of public information cannot improve upon the payoffs from the multiple bids generated on the basis of the decision rule 'uncovered' in the previous part.
ABSTRACT:This study analyzes various approaches to the nature of the state. A comprehensive analysis of the nature of objective relations between the state and society is the point of departure from which to understand specific histories of state making and nation building in the Ottoman and Turkish settings. Contrary to ahistorical, essentialist, and static approaches to the state by developmentalist, Marxist, and statist paradigms, this study develops a definition of the state based on the notions of the separation of the political sphere from the sphere of civil society and from the territoriality, centrality, binding rule-making and rule-enforcing characteristics of the modern nation-state. The study also examines the separation and territoriality characteristics which constitute the essence of the autonomous power of the state. The emergence of the modern state in the Ottoman Empire and its transformation into the nation state in the Turkish Republic is taken as the case to be tested by the state definition of this thesis. The general conditions of the modern state appear, as this study suggests, to be the development of a modern bureaucracy, the enhancing capacity of the state to extract resources over a delimited territory, the increasing power of the administrative apparatus to make and enforce law, the connection between the conduct of war and the growth of the administrative apparatus, the homogenization of the population, and the role of the state in economic affairs. The analysis of the state in the Ottoman-Turkish setting proves that the rise of the modern state coincides with the consolidation of capitalist relations and that the modern nation state draws the institutional boundaries of industrial capitalism. The study also examines the notion of the state within the intersection of classes and the system of states.
ABSTRACT:In 1980, faced with a severe economic crisis, the Turkish government adopted a comprehensive economic stabilization and structural adjustment program, a substantial part of which targeted financial restructuring. Based on the McKinnon-Shaw (1973) framework, the program initiated the transition from a regulated to a liberalized financial system. This dissertation critically assesses the impact of interest rate deregulation as part of the financial liberalization program implemented in Turkey. The premise of the program was that when interest rates are deregulated, deposit and loan rates would increase in a capital scarce market, and the higher returns to deposits would attract more savings into the formal financial sector, increasing the volume of loanable funds to the private sector. Higher availability of credit would then promote the previously quantity-constrained investment, leading to growth in the long-run. The behavior of interest rates, saving, and investment was examined with descriptive statistics and through econometric analysis for the 1970-1994 period. The results obtained lead to the conclusion that interest rates and savings increase erratically with the implementation of the financial liberalization program. However, no evidence for positive relationships between interest rates, savings, and investment is found. Moreover, the ultimate goal of higher investment rates is not attained. The spreads between deposit and loan rates remain high and erratic throughout the entire period, as an indication of operational inefficiency in the banking sector. New financial instruments and markets are introduced, but they fail to present an effective alternative to the existing oligopolistic banking structure. Simultaneous macroeconomic restructuring and financial liberalization resulted in instability and uncertainty in Turkey, while failing to realize the balanced growth objective set in 1980. From the observations of the model and the way it was implemented in Turkey, two policy implications emerged. Macroeconomic stability measures need to precede financial restructuring for the latter to be more effective. More generally, this dissertation argues that while financial restructuring was clearly necessary in Turkey in the 1980s, a more gradualist approach, in which policy-triggered economic changes and the structure of the Turkish economy are factored into policy-making, may have yielded better economic results than direct financial liberalization.
ABSTRACT:The study argues that social and institutional factors accompany human capital factors in determining earnings of the self-employed. Some of these determinants are gender-based factors affecting women's earnings only. The study challenges the human capital approach and develops an alternative model that identifies social and institutional factors that are determinants of earnings. This study is significant because it explains the gender-based earnings gap by taking into account the interaction between economic factors and prevailing social and institutional structures, with women entrepreneurs as the norm. Using data from a 1995 survey of 705 women and men entrepreneurs, the study shows that the economic, social and institutional constraints on the earnings of women are different from those on men. Women's increased mobility and access to information and markets influence their earnings positively while these factors do not have significant effects on the earnings of men. Therefore, it is necessary to recognize and address the gender-based constraints faced by women when developing economic development policies in the fields of poverty alleviation and gender-equity.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation examines the employment status of women in the Turkish Republic (1923-1990) from the point of view of historical, social, economic and political change in the country. Recent theoretical approaches (modernization theory, and Marxist perspectives) are criticized in the thesis for not providing a complete analysis of women-gender and development, particularly for understanding Muslim women's economic status. It is proposed that in addition to the economic and social questions, political ideology needs to be taken into account in studying women's employment status in 'Third-World' countries. After an analysis of the social and political context of economic development in Turkey, the thesis focuses on the impact of Kemalism and the political ideology of Islam on women's employment status. The findings suggest that the modernization movements, which began in the nineteenth century in the Ottoman Empire and continued in the Turkish state, played a significant role in the advancement of women's rights. The political context of these modernization attempts included changing economic policies with regard to production and trade. It is argued that the Kemalist regime introduced rights for women for three reasons: (1) women were utilized to spread the secular bourgeois ideology, (2) women became an important source of labour, particularly for white-collar occupations, and (3) educated women also took part in their own emancipation movement. Although several rights were introduced for women, the Kemalist and post-Kemalist reforms still included patriarchal components. While, the government encouraged women's employment, policies reinforced traditional ideologies about women's primary roles as wives and mothers. Thus, the findings suggests that 'traditional' and 'modern' values are not mutually exclusive, but rather have coexisted. Turkish women's economic position covers a wide range of circumstances. On the one hand, a group of 'modern' educated professional women have occupied high-status jobs in white-collar occupations, resulting partly from Kemalist reforms, although they are largely not in decision-making positions. On the other hand, peasant women have been engaged in production as unpaid family workers. The analysis also suggests that over the last thirty years, women have shifted from unpaid family workers in the rural areas to low-paid workers in the urban informal economy. Women are integrated mostly in labour-intensive industry with significantly lower wages and substantially 'unskilled' positions compared to men. The conclusion of this thesis is that women's employment status in Turkey has been affected by economic development policies and political ideologies.
ABSTRACT:The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze empirically the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth for the cases of Turkey and Greece for the time period 1950-1992. In this study, the defense-growth relationship is examined within the framework of a neoclassical economic growth model. The economy is divided into three sectors: the nonmilitary public sector; the military public sector, and the civilian sector, depicted as N, M, and C, respectively. Three factors of production, namely, capital, labor, and human capital, are used in the model. It is assumed that each factor contributes to the total output at each point in time. The model is designed to capture the combined externality effects and factor productivity differentials of the military and the nonmilitary public sectors on the rest of the economy. The externality effects and the productivity differentials are also computed separately. In addition, the total impact of the nonmilitary public sector, the civilian sector, and the rival's military expenditures on economic growth is estimated in the context of this study. This study finds that there is a positive association between defense spending and economic growth for Turkey for the period 1950-1992, while the total impact of military spending on economic growth for Greece is not statistically significant. However, the externality effects of military sectors are computed to be negative but insignificant for both the cases. The factor productivity differentials of the military public sectors in Turkey and Greece produced inconclusive results. The factor productivity differential of the nonmilitary public sector was found negative and significant for the case of Greece. However, in the case of Turkey, the factor productivity differential of the nonmilitary public sector was inconclusive. The impact of the nonmilitary public sector on economic growth for Turkey is detected positive for all the models estimated. However, in the case of Greece, the model produced inconclusive results. On the other hand, the externality effect of nonmilitary public sector is positive both for Turkey and Greece.
ABSTRACT:In recent decades, many developing countries have launched trade reforms aimed at an export-oriented strategy. While most of these countries have experienced a reversal of these reforms, only a few have managed to sustain them. What explains these two different paths? Why is a sustained reform such a rare occurrence? What do the successful governments do? This study argues that the reformers are more likely to be able to sustain trade reform if they early on build a pro-trade coalition with private sector groups and international creditors. It utilizes a process-driven mode of analysis, cutting through two distinct stages of trade reform process: initiation and implementation. The analytical framework rests upon trade policy positions identified with the coalitions of the actors located across the state and society. One of two main strategies--inward-looking or export-oriented--dominate the trade policy realm depending upon the relative power of the two rival policy coalitions. The inward-oriented coalition consists of the public sector, private industrialists, and importers while the outward-oriented coalition consists of internationalist elements within the state, exporters, agricultural sector, and international creditors. Foreign exchange shortages generally trigger outward-oriented reforms, which are led by internationalist elements within the state. Their efforts to build a pro-trade coalition with other outward-oriented interests are vital to sustaining the reform. This coalitional approach differs from the dominant literature in several respects. The current trade policy literature, which advocates an export-oriented strategy, focuses largely on the initiation and content of trade reform. It says little about the conditions under which a government is more likely to be able to sustain the reform. This dissertation attempts to fill this policy gap, stressing the process by which trade reform is implemented as well as initiated. Unlike state- or society-based theories, it allows for trade policy coalitions to form among state and private sector actors. Unlike pure international pressure arguments, it shows how external pressures interact with the domestic structure. This dissertation analyzes three Turkish trade reform experiences in a comparative perspective. In 1958 and again in 1970, Turkey initiated trade reforms. Both were reversed within several years. In 1980, Turkey attempted another trade reform and managed to sustain it. Why did Turkey sustain the reform in the 1980s, but not in the previous periods? This question lies at the core of the empirical puzzle this dissertation attempts to solve. The coalitional solution offered is useful for those policy-makers who contemplate on reforms in trade policy or any other areas of political economy.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation consists of three essays on the Turkish economy. The first essay examines the time-series characteristics of deficits, taxes, and seigniorage for Turkey. Two approaches are integrated: the optimal taxation model and the political approach. The model shows that the policy horizon of governments play a crucial role regarding the long-run behavior of fiscal variables. Short-sighted governments cause fiscal variables to diverge from paths implied as optimal by the optimal taxation approach. Specifically, tax smoothing does not hold and a change in the fiscal regime where deficits widen over time is implied. Evidence from Turkey supports the implications of the model. The second essay is an empirical analysis of inflation in Turkey. Inflation became a problem in Turkey during the late 1970s. Stabilization attempts and structural reforms, have failed to reduce inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. This essay uses unrestricted VAR models to analyze the sources of inflation in Turkey during 1981-95. Impulse responses and historical decompositions show that innovations in the rate of depreciation have played the major role in determining the time path of inflation during the period in question. As well, the paper presents some preliminary evidence on the implications of public sector pricing policies on inflation dynamics. The third essay examines the demand for money in Turkey during the high inflation period 1977-95. A model based on the cointegration of real money balances and inflation provides an adequate characterization of demand for narrow money. As well, tests indicate a structural shift in money demand in the mid-1980s due to financial reforms.
ABSTRACT:In an increasingly globalized and interlinked world economy, the difficulties of implementing effective technology acquisition and utilization programs are important forces driving economic growth. Developing countries, under trade liberalization and market deregulation policies, must acquire and utilize the technology they need effectively to encourage and sustain this growth. This study deals with the technology acquisition and utilization process in manufacturing organizations through a comparative case study between a developed and a developing country. The survey instrument contains a set of variables that are based on the needs of the technology acquisition and utilization model proposed. The surveys were conducted with 55 medium size manufacturing organizations throughout the states of Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois in the U.S. and with 48 manufacturing organizations in Istanbul, Turkey. These firms represent a cross section of Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes used to classify the types of products manufactured. The needs of Turkish manufacturing industry in three different sectors, namely, metal goods, electronics & electrical equipment, and nonelectrical machinery were chosen as the focal point for this research. The results showed that there were significant differences in acquisition channels and difficulties while there were similarities in the reasons and impacts of new technology acquired by the U.S. and Turkish industries. The study also showed that there were outreach opportunities for educational institutions to provide training programs to help industry improve technology acquisition and utilization effectiveness in both countries.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation develops several empirical models based on recent developments in international trade theory that have emphasized the role of scale economies and imperfect competition as a basis for trade among nations. To evaluate the implications of imperfect competition and scale economies for the performance of Turkish manufacturing, this dissertation develops four models for estimating market power and productivity. These models are used to investigate the impact of trade reform on economic performance in Turkish manufacturing over the period 1983 to 1990 using KLEM panel data on 72 manufacturing sectors with ownership detail. Consideration of imperfect competition and scale economies is especially important for a developing country such as Turkey. Turkish manufacturing is characterized by small domestic markets and the historically important institutional role reflected in public enterprises. These features of Turkish manufacturing are clearly inconsistent with perfect competition. Furthermore, with the small size of the domestic market the only way to exploit economies of scale is to access foreign markets through international trade. Analyzing such complex phenomena requires a variety of strategies that motivate the models used in this dissertation. The models range from simple data-based models to advanced econometric specifications of Turkish manufacturing in an open economy under imperfect competition. The advanced model used in this dissertation is especially important because it brings together recent developments in international trade theory and industrial organization using a theoretically consistent model of firm behavior that consist of a multi-product cost function, and supply response functions and demand equations. International trade is consistently incorporated into the behavioral equations. Estimates of market power and productivity derived from the range of models estimated in this dissertation are examined for public and private enterprises using structural and trade policy variables in a conventional response surface analysis. This dissertation finds that there are important differences between public and private enterprises. It seems that, on average, market power among private enterprises is greater than among public enterprises. We also find that some indication of productivity decline in both types of enterprises over the period under study. Imports as a market discipline hypothesis seems to be supported in public enterprises, while exports are associated with increases in market power. Finally, imports do not appear to be important in explaining public or private sector productivity, though exports are associated with productivity increases in both types of enterprises.
ABSTRACT:This study examines conflict and cooperation in the periodic marketplaces of Ankara, Turkey, with a focus on the following: (a) the relationship between employers and employees; (b) the relationship among the market traders themselves: and (c) the relationship between the central state, the local municipalities and the market traders. I used loosely structured in-depth interviews, documentary research, and participant observations to collect data on these topics, and examined conflict and cooperation from both Marxist and Weberian perspectives. This study develops a disaggregated model of class locations in order to comprehend the complexity of class relations and to make an adequate analysis of class-based conflict and cooperation. Conflicts between employers and employees center on remuneration and control over the work process, yet such disputes differ significantly from disputes between employers and employees in the formal sector. Petty bourgeois ideology, competitiveness among wage-earners, ethnic ties, and traditional work relations all play an important role in the relationship between employers and employees. My research reveals there are three groups of traders--profit maximizers, risk minimizers, and marginal traders--whose strategies for coping with competition are different. Traders use ethnicity or localism to help construct economies of scale needed to stay at the competitive edge and to restrict trade opportunities to a limited circle of people. This in turn leads to power struggles for market domination among influential market traders, who use the ethnicity or localism of less influential market traders to ensure their own competitive positions. This study also addresses the relationship between the state and market traders with respect to the dual state roles of accumulation and legitimation. Informal market trading in Ankara contributes to lowering the cost of living in the city and therefore contributes to capital accumulation in the formal sector. Confrontations occur between the state and influential market traders regarding the former's control over the latter. Conflicts also arise between the municipality and market traders on the municipality's various efforts to control the marketplaces and economic activities of market traders. This leads to organized protests of market traders for decreased municipal control over their activities.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation contains two essays. Both essays address the econometric validity of certain exchange rate models in the light of multivariate Maximum Likelihood methodology of cointegration devised by Johansen. First essay aims to examine the econometric validity of some exchange rate models under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). These models include Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis and Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates (MAER). One of the main goals of first essay is to analyze and compare the relative econometric performances of these models during pre-EMS (European Monetary System) and post-EMS periods by employing Maximum Likelihood in error correction model. In the view of our empirical evidence, we have reached the conclusion that deviations from PPP were not persistent in the ERM. On the other hand, we have found strong evidence of cointegration between the exchange rate and its fundamentals for European group of countries under both post-EMS and pre-EMS periods. However, the estimated parameters in both periods are generally not consistent with the expectations of the MAER. The second essay deals with the econometric validity of the Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates (MAER) for post-1980 Turkish case by applying reduced-rank cointegration analysis. For high inflation countries, monetary factors, rather than nontransitory real factors, would be expected to dominate exchange rate changes. On the other hand, Turkey followed a flexible exchange rate policy during the post-1980 period. Therefore, Turkey constitutes a valuable case-study for investigating the econometric validity of the MAER. Our empirical results strongly support cointegration between the exchange rate and its macro-fundamentals for post-1980 Turkish experience. However, the estimated cointegrating vectors generally do not conform to the expectations of the basic monetary model.
CHRISTINE DEVLIN,(1995),“SECTORAL SHIFTS AND AGGREGATE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE
ECONOMIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST (TURKEY)”,
GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This dissertation is an application of the Lilien (1982) sectoral shift hypothesis to time series data for the Turkish economy, 1967-92. My results indicate that sectoral shifts in labor demand are negatively correlated with aggregate unemployment, suggesting that the reallocation of workers across employment sectors has the potential to mitigate existing labor market rigidities. In the Turkish economy, shifts in labor demand appear to ease the effects of educational and geographic labor market segmentation.