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Cemal Atici,
(2000), “The welfare and distribution impacts of international agricultural
trade policies: An analysis of Turkey's integration into the European Union”,
PhD, The Louisiana State
UNIVERSITY And Agricultural And Mechanical Col.
Serap Kocak,
(July 1999), “Gender Discrimination in the Turkish Labour Market”, UNIVERSITY
Of Leicester
Orhan Kara,
(2000), “The economic return to investment in human capital in Turkey:
1968—1994”, The UNIVERSITY Of Wisconsin - Madison
Osman Nuri Nalbantoglu, (2000), “Essays in financial
economics”, PhD, Harvard UNIVERSITY.
Cemile
Sancak, (2000), “Investment under borrowing constraints: Theory and evidence
from Turkey”, PhD, Carleton UNIVERSITY
(CANADA)
Serkan
Savasoglu,(2000), “Essays in Financial Economics”, PhD, Harvard UNIVERSITY
Hamdi Hakan
Tunc, (2000), “The challenge of balancing the books: The politics of fiscal
deficits in Turkey, Brazil and Poland”, PhD, UNIVERSITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
Hatice Deniz
Yenal, (2000), “Weaving a market: The informal economy and gender in a
transnational trade network between Turkey and the former Soviet Union”, PhD, STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW
YORK AT BINGHAMTON.
Sadullah
Celik, (1999), “Divisia monetary aggregates: An empirical investigation of
their usefulness for Turkey”, PhD, THE UNIVERSITY OF
NEBRASKA - LINCOLN
Murat Somer,
(1999), ”Diversity vs. unity: Causes and dynamics of ethnic polarization
(Former Yugoslavia, Turkey)”, PhD, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
Mehmet Taner
Yigit, (1999), “Effects of inflation uncertainty on credit markets: A
disequilibrium approach”, PhD, THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH
CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL
Arfe Yucedag, (1999), “Wage
differences between male and female teachers in Turkey”, PhD, THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
AT AUSTIN
H.S Okumus, (1999), ”Profitability analysis of Turkish
banking within the European single market for financial services (BL)”, PhD
Thesis, Anglia UNIVERSITY, (UK)
Yasemin Biro,
(1998), “Prospects for local community participation in the management of the
Goksu Delta Protected Special Area in Turkey”, PhD, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA,
BERKELEY
R.A De Santis, (1998), “Trade policy and general
equilibrium under different market regimes with numerical applications to
Turkey (BL)” , Ph.D, WARWICK UNIVERSITY, COVENTRY, (U.K)
A. Helvaci,(1998), “The influence of liberalism on Turkish
economy, politics and civic culture with particular reference to the Ozal era
(BL)”, PhD, Sheffield UNIVERSITY, (UK)
M. Karadag, (1997), “The effects of VAT harmonisation with
the EU on the Turkish economy: a CGE approach (BL)”, PhD, Loughborough
UNIVERSITY, (UK)
M. Vitur, (1997), “The European Community's external policy-making
process: the case of EC-Turkey association, 1973-1993”, PhD, London School of
Economics, London, (UK)
U.M. Cakmakci, (1997), “The political economy of
governance: an integral economic analysis of textile and apparel sectors in
Turkey (BL)” ,PhD, Lancaster UNIVERSITY, (UK)
Berna Saniye Bayazitoglu, (1997), “Bidder behavior
and market outcomes in Treasury bill auctions”, PhD, CORNELL UNIVERSITY
Recep
Boztemur, (1997), “State making and nation building in Turkey: A study of the
historical relation between the capitalist development and the establishment of
the modern nation-state” ,PhD, THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
ETEM, KARAKAYA, (April 2001), “Implications of Turkeys' Customs Union Agreement with
the EU on Turkish Economy: A CGE Analysis”, PhD Thesis, Nottingham Trent UNIVERSITY
,Nottingham
ABSTRACT:
This research
examines the implications of the Customs Union Agreement with the European
Union on Turkish economy. For this
purpose, we developed a single country 21-sector computable general equilibrium
model, which takes imperfect competition and economies of scale into
consideration. The literature suggests
that when imperfect competition included into the models, welfare implications
of an economic integration differ quantitatively from those reached under the
perfect competition paradigm. This involves an assessment of the implications
for the structure of production and trade in the Turkish economy.
We quantify the impact on Turkey of two
aspects of its new Customs Union Agreement: elimination of both tariffs
and non-tariff barriers among the member countries and reduction of external tariffs through implementation
of the Common External Tariff of the
European Union (full liberalisation case), and elimination of tariffs only together
with Common External Tariff reductions (tariffs-only case). These two scenarios are alternatively
assessed under perfectly competitive and imperfectly competitive models. Two important conclusions can be drown from
our simulated results. First, we find that Customs Union Agreement is
beneficial to Turkey in all alternative model cases, however, the imperfectly
competitive models result in considerably higher gains compared to perfectly
competitive models. Second, if Turkey
achieves full liberalisation with the Customs Union Agreement, the economic
gains are considerably higher than the tariff removals-only case in all model
versions. The sensitivity analysis
shows that the results are relatively robust to the way the model is calibrated
Ahmet Tiryaki, (2001),
“Empirical studies on the real effects of the United States monetary policy
shocks”, PhD Thesis, George Mason UNIVERSITY, USA.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation presents evidence on how the US
monetary policy shocks have real effects not only domestically, but also
abroad. The empirical tests focus on the effects of the US monetary policy
innovations on domestic market concentration in manufacturing industries and on
economic activity abroad through the international monetary transmission
mechanism. The first section of the dissertation uses a vector autoregression
technique to illustrate the tendency for the US manufacturing industries to
become more concentrated after a contractionary monetary policy shock due to
the uneven impact of capital market imperfections on small and large companies.
The remaining two sections focuses on the international monetary transmission
mechanism. The second section uses data from the G-7 countries to show that an
expansionary monetary policy shock in the US reduces domestic and world
interest rates, depreciates the dollar, and increases the level of domestic
output. The fall in the foreign interest rates and the aggregate demand
spillover from the US stimulate foreign output. Thus, an expansionary monetary
policy in the US not only increases output and, thereby, asset returns
domestically, but also abroad. Finally, the third section presents evidence
that the impact of a monetary policy shock in a large country on a small
country varies depending on whether that small economy is subject to a fixed
exchange rate regime. Using Turkey to represent the small economy and the US
and Germany as large economies, this section shows that the effect of an
aggregate demand externality is stronger if the small economy pursues a fixed
exchange rate regime. In addition, this study shows that three other factors
are important in determining the extent of the international monetary
transmission mechanism: the level of a country's financial development, its integration
with the international financial markets and the synchronization of domestic
and foreign business cycles.
Ahmet Beskaya, (2000), “ AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR IN TURKEY:
1951-1995” ,PhD Thesis, De Montfort UNIVERSITY, LEICESTER
ABSTRACT:This
research examines the aggregate consumption behaviour in the Turkish economy
over the period 1951-1995, using both conventional and cointegration
time-series techniques. While the
former is employed to estimate major theories of consumption in order to test
their applicability to the Turkish economy, the latter is mainly used to test
our aggregate consumption function developed for Turkey.
The
results of cointegration analysis are found to be substantially different from
those obtained from conventional econometric techniques. While none of the existing theories seem to
fit the data very well, cointegration analysis of our consumption function
shows that nominal interest rate, financial wealth, inflation, and financial
depth, along with income have significant effects in both the long-run and the
short-run.
Our results also indicate that a large percentage
of the Turkish consumers are subject to liquidity constraints, which have
partly been eased by the financial liberalisation programmes introduced after
1980. The relaxation of liquidity constraints, in turn, has created a positive
impact on the consumers’ spending.
Cemal Atici,
(2000), “The welfare and distribution impacts of international agricultural
trade policies: An analysis of Turkey's integration into the European Union”,
PhD, The Louisiana State
UNIVERSITY And Agricultural And Mechanical Col.
ABSTRACT:The objective of this dissertation is to
examine the agricultural trade policies of Turkey and determine the impact of
various relevant policy scenarios on the welfare and distribution of income within
the agricultural sector as well as between producers and consumer groups. The
main goal of this research is to quantify the impact of trade liberalization
resulting from multilateral agricultural trade agreements and the formation of
regional trading blocs on Turkish agriculture and, consequently, the income
distribution effects in the various producer and consumer groups. The study
utilizes a partial equilibrium framework Modele Internationale Simplifie de
Simulation (MISS) to analyze the impacts of various policy decisions and
scenarios on the welfare of producers, consumers, and the budget. In this
study, ten agricultural products that each play significant roles in terms of
production, consumption, and trade are examined. These products are; lamb,
dairy milk, corn, wheat, rice, oilseeds, cotton, sugar, tobacco, and poultry.
Producer and Consumer subsidy equivalents which show overall protection in
these sectors, are used to represent the weights perceived by the policy
makers. Results show that Turkish Political Preference Function (PPF) values
are higher in integration but decreases in free trade. The Nash equilibrium
occurred at the point where Turkey chooses integration with the EU while the EU
chooses the Agenda 2000 reform provisions. Results also show that distribution
of income estimated by the Gini coefficient does not change significantly with
freer trade but deteriorates with the integration.
Serap
Kocak, (July 1999), “Gender Discrimination in the Turkish Labour Market”,
UNIVERSITY Of Leicester
ABSTRACT: In this thesis we investigate the presence and extent of
wage discrimination and occupational gender segregation in the Turkish labour
market. Cross-section tests of wage
discrimination between men and women for occupations, in the following branches
of economic activity - manufacturing, mining, and quarrying, electricity, gas
and water sectors for the year of 1994 is estimated by econometric methods.
Horizontal occupational segregation by gender in the Turkish labour market for
the period of 1975-1990, and vertical occupational gender segregation within
the Turkish Higher Education Institutes between 1988/89 to 1997/98, is explored
by using an alternative index method, which was developed by Karmel and Maclachlan.
The results of
discrimination analysis show that there is substantial wage discrimination and
occupational segregation between male and female workers in the Turkish labour
market. Occupational gender segregation
is an important explanation accounting for the wage differences. The findings of this study suggest that
labour market discrimination in Turkey emerges from the constrained labour
market choices, due to the institutional barriers to female education, training
and employment, rather than the free choice of women in the market, as proposed
by the human capital theory. Cultural
and traditional stereotypes among employers, and in the society as a whole,
about the suitable gender characteristics for certain jobs play a very
important role in the persistence of discrimination in the Turkish labour
market.
Therefore, all these findings indicate that the intervention to eliminate discrimination in Turkey is inevitable. In this study, educational policies are suggested as a very important policy to eliminate discrimination in the Turkish case. Because it will not only increase women’s more equal access to male-dominated occupations, but also help to reduce the discrimination against women, by changing the discriminatory social norms in the society.
Orhan Kara,
(2000), “The economic return to investment in human capital in Turkey:
1968—1994”, The UNIVERSITY Of Wisconsin – Madison
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this dissertation is to
examine the economic returns to investment in education by applying human
capital theory to Turkey. Turkey, one of the least studied of the OECD
countries, is an important case considering both its strenuous attempts to
modernize and its negotiation of culturally (Islamic) based gender differences.
Therefore, given the important role of human capital investment in economic and
social development, this study sheds light on factors affecting the economic
returns to investment in human capital in Turkey. This study employs three
Turkish household surveys: the 1994 household income and consumption
expenditure survey (State Institute of Statistics [SIS], 1994), the 1987
household income and consumption expenditure survey (SIS, 1987), and the 1968
household survey (Hacettepe UNIVERSITY, 1968). Using these data, the internal
rates of return to schooling are estimated. The social and private rates of
return to education are calculated for men and women as well as for each
region. The analysis of the data reveals eight main findings. First, social
rates of return are lower than private rates of return to investment in
schooling. Second, internal rates of return decrease over time with larger
decreases for lower levels of schooling and smaller decreases for higher level
of schooling. Third, internal rates of return exhibit diminishing returns to
human capital. Fourth, the highest rates of return to investment in education
are found in elementary schools. Fifth, rates of return to investment in
vocational-technical secondary schools are lower than general secondary
education. Sixth, women on average obtain lower internal rates of return than
do men. Seventh, rates of return to investment in schooling are higher in the
Western regions than the Eastern regions, and there is a convergence in the
rates of return for higher level of schooling and for gender. Eighth, economic
conditions such as the unfavorable labor market conditions, inflation, and
international trade have adversely affected the rates of return over time.
Still, the rates of return to investment in education are generally high,
indicating that the investment in human capital in Turkey proves not only
socially beneficial but also profitable to individuals.
Kayaardi, Nihan,
(2000), “Women's income-generating activities in Turkey”, MS, The Unýversity
Of Texas
ABSTRACT:Home working has recently reemerged in both
less-developed and developed countries. It is observed in both unskilled and
highly skilled work. In general, there are no estimates of the number of women
who bring work into their homes. Home working is part of the informal economy
that is disguised and shadowed in the economy. Most of this type of employment
is hidden in official statistics. In Turkey, for example the female informal
labor force is about 68% (Kumbetoglu, 1993). Most of the work done by the women
is piecework, and their earnings depend on the piece-rate. This thesis utilizes
existing secondary sources in attempting to explain the participation of
Turkish women in the informal economy. It is suggested that through continuous
exposure to paid work, women's consciousness will gradually increase and
challenge traditional understandings of the subordination concept
Nadolski, Dora J.
,(2000),“The etatist Turkish Republic and its political and socio-economic
performance from 1980--1999: A developing state impacted by international
organizations and interdependence”, PhD, UNIVERSITY Of
Missouri - Kansas City
ABSTRACT:This dissertation explores the impact of
exogenous forces on the political and socio-economic institutions prior to,
during, and after etatism (state controlled enterprises) in the parliamentary
Republic of Turkey. After the third military coup of 1980, Turkey concentrated
on political, economic, and social reforms recommended by the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, and the European Union.
Implementation of these recommendations has assisted Turkeys entry into
competitive world markets. This case study of Turkey links an interdependent
state, through the mechanisms of international organizations, to those
difficult-to-enter, highly specialized, and competitive markets.
Interdependence, pluralism, and globalism provide theoretical perspectives and
rationale for conducting case study research on a state impacted by
international organizations. Methodologically, OECD data, World Bank and EU
criteria assist in analyzing the independent variable, nation state
interdependence and the dependent variables, Turkey's political, economic and
social institutions. The major conclusions are: that interdependence and
pluralism explain Turkey's status in the global system of competitive states;
that joining international organizations has improved Turkey's institutions,
and that Turkey's political institutions comply with World Bank criteria for
effective government by implementing OECD recommendations, for economic reform.
These economic reforms continue with privatizing State Economic Enterprises
(SEEs), curtailing inflation, increasing social security benefits, and
standardizing industrial products.
Osman Nuri
Nalbantoglu, (2000), “Essays in financial economics”, PhD, Harvard
UNIVERSITY.
ABSTRACT:This thesis consists of three essays in
financial economics. The first chapter is titled as Using Put Warrants in Share
Repurchases. I find compared to firms conducting regular repurchases, put
warrant users are larger and have more cash. They announce a greater number of
buybacks and repurchase a higher percentage of their intended shares. Both the
short term and medium term abnormal returns for buybacks with put warrants are
significantly higher than for regular buybacks. Finally, put users seem to be
able to time their stock price volatility, evidenced by stock price volatility
that rises into announcements and falls following the announcement. The results
seem to support the signaling hypothesis explanation for abnormal returns
following share buyback announcements. The second chapter is titled,
“Multiple Buybacks, Completion Patterns and Reputations. I find that
the announcement returns following multiple buyback announcements are
capitalized to a degree: abnormal returns decrease with each buyback
announcement, but remain positive and significant. Firm characteristics seem to
lose explanatory power over the abnormal returns with each subsequent buyback,
except for announcement size. I also find that announcement returns are
negatively correlated with subsequent repurchases. However, announcement
returns for later announcements are positively correlated with repurchases made
following the previous announcement, which suggests a
“reputation” effect in multiple buybacks. The results
support the signaling hypothesis over the agency explanation for abnormal returns
following share buyback announcements. The third chapter is titled as;Impact of
corporate governance and foreign trading on firm returns during crises: the
case of Turkey, co-authored with Serkan Savasoglu. We show that corporate
governance and foreign ownership measures have additional explanatory power
over fundamental variables for the cross-section of Turkish stock returns in
the 1998 crisis. Firms with higher accounting standards and better management
have higher crisis abnormal returns. Ownership structures that are less prone
to expropriation risk are also associated with better stock price performance.
Using the average foreign trading volume before the crisis as a proxy for
pre-crisis foreign ownership levels, we also conclude that higher foreign
ownership leads to lower crisis abnormal returns. The final outcome depends on
which effect dominates.
Cemile Sancak,
(2000), “Investment under borrowing constraints: Theory and evidence from
Turkey”, PhD, Carleton
UNIVERSITY (CANADA)
ABSTRACT:The Asian economic crisis has reinforced
the importance of efficient financial markets for sustained real investment and
economic growth, yet there is still limited empirical research on the effects
of the deregulation of financial markets on the firm's investment decisions.
The purpose of this thesis is to model the impact of financial reforms on
borrowing constraints faced by firms and to test the impact of financial
reforms on the investment decisions of firms in Turkey. To do so, the thesis
builds a dynamic investment model, where financial variables and real
investment are linked through the net present value of the firm. A contribution
of this thesis rests on the specification of the financial distress function.
Whereas the literature uses a quadratic functional form for the cost of
distress, we, instead, assume that the firm faces a risk premium over and above
the riskless interest rate. The risk premium is linear in the level of debt.
The derived investment model is employed to test whether Turkey's efforts at
financial liberalization in 1980 were able to relax the borrowing constraints
faced by Turkish firms. A dynamic panel data methodology is used on a panel
data set of 1036 Turkish firms over the 1983 and 1986 period. In addition, time series analysis is employed on
Turkish aggregate data over the 1971 and 1991 period. This study is the first
to test the impact of financial liberalization on borrowing constraints by
using Turkish firm level data. The current literature offers limited empirical
research on firm level investment in a developing country. The results from
both panel data and time series data analyses indicate that the financial
reforms did not relax the borrowing constraints for Turkish firms. In the
post-reform period, medium Finns still faced both an increasing premium and
credit rationing. Large firms faced an increasing premium but no credit
rationing. There is no evidence of an increasing premium nor credit rationing
for small firms.
Serkan Savasoglu,
(2000), “Essays in Financial Economics”, PhD, Harvard
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This thesis consists of three essays in
financial economics. The first chapter is titled “ADR
Arbitrage.” The time series of ADR (American Depositary Receipt)
arbitrage profits support a limited arbitrage explanation. First, arbitrage
profits are increasing in the idiosyncratic risk of the arbitrage position,
which is a function of the standard deviation of past arbitrage profits.
Second, arbitrage profits are increasing in arbitrageurs' exposure to ADR
arbitrage. Third, arbitrage profits are increasing in portfolio flows into a
country if the ADR is already trading at a premium. Finally, ADR arbitrage
returns are higher following periods of larger mispricings in the on-the-run
versus off-the-run U.S. Treasury bond market. The second chapter is titled
“Limited arbitrage in mergers and acquisitions, co-authored with
Malcolm Baker. The portfolio return to risk arbitrage has an abnormal return of
about one percent per month for the full sample period. The cross-section of
risk arbitrage positions allows us to explain this abnormal return. Consistent
with limited arbitrage and inconsistent with a transaction cost theory, we find
that excess returns are increasing in target size and post-announcement trading
volume. Also, the idiosyncratic risk of deal completion and the supply of
arbitrage capital influence returns. When arbitrageurs' equity holdings fall,
subsequent risk arbitrage returns rise. We conclude that limited arbitrage plays
a role in the market pricing of merger and acquisition offers. The third
chapter is titled as;Impact of corporate governance and foreign trading on firm
returns during crises: the case of Turkey, co-authored with Osman Nalbantoglu.
We show that corporate governance and foreign ownership measures have
additional explanatory power over fundamental variables for the cross-section
of Turkish stock returns in the 1998 crisis. Firms with higher accounting
standards and better management have higher crisis abnormal returns. Ownership
structures that are less prone to expropriation risk are also associated with
better stock price performance. Using the average foreign trading volume before
the crisis as a proxy for pre-crisis foreign ownership levels, we also conclude
that higher foreign ownership leads to lower crisis abnormal returns. The final
outcome depends on which effect dominates.
Mazen Mahmoud
Soueid, (2000), "Ahead of the curve: Forecasting exchange rate and
interest rate events in emerging markets (Russia, Brazil, Turkey)”,PhD, BROWN UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:The aim of this work is to forecast events
(crises) in emerging markets. We introduce a novel approach in the speculative
attack literature: we estimate exchange rate events and interest rate events,
not by combining them in an index (as in mainstream empirical literature), but
by estimating them simultaneously. We therefore develop and implement a system
that produces one-month ahead probabilities of simultaneous events in the
exchange rate and in the money markets. The development of the model was
completed in three main stages: the selection of variables, the simultaneous
estimation, and the implementation of the model. These stages are discussed
separately in three chapters. Chapter 1. Identifying the causes of exchange
rate and interest rate events. We run regional as well as global regressions
that attempt to estimate separately the two events. An exchange rate event is a
dummy that takes the value of 1 if the exchange rate depreciation exceeds 10%.
An interest rate event is a dummy that takes the value of 1 if the increase in the
key intervention rate exceeds 500 basis points. Three conclusions were drawn
from this stage: first, the variables that cause events do not greatly change
from one region to another. It is therefore acceptable to pool across regions
in order to take advantage of a higher ratio of events to non-events episodes.
Second, first-generation variables, mainly domestic credit expansion, are as
important in the nineties as they were in the seventies and early eighties.
Last but not least, as shown by the regional Asia regression, the Asian 1997
crisis was about financial excess. The lending boom, manifested in a surge of
claims on the private sector that was not matched by a parallel surge in GDP
growth, was the most significant variable. Chapter 2. Estimating simultaneously
exchange rate and interest rate events. We know from theory and practice that
an interest rate increase is an important factor in the determination of an
exchange rate event. We also know that the decision of whether to devalue or
not has important implications on the interest rate front. Therefore, a logical
step would be to estimate simultaneously and not separately the two events. We
implement a technique suggested by Amemiya and we find that the simultaneous
estimation improves significantly the results in terms of type 1 vs. type 2
error. In both cases, the coefficient on the simultaneous event turns out to be
the most significant of all variables. It also has a positive sign in the two
regressions, suggesting that the increase in the probability of one event,
simultaneously increases the probability of the other. This provides a strong
argument against the interest rate defense policy, and it holds even when the
definition of a defense is altered to consider different levels. Chapter 3. Forecasting
exchange rate and interest rate events. The model is extended to include
several definitions of the exchange rate events. In addition to the 10%, we
consider 5%, 15%, 20% and 25% devaluation levels. As the level of depreciation
increases, contagion variables gradually loose their significance and
fundamentals become more significant. We suggest a method of evaluating the
forecasted probabilities by comparing them to action triggers that were
obtained from the in-sample maximization of a return function. We then apply
and test the model out of sample where it captures both the Russian (1998) and
the Brazilian (1999) crises. It performs also well in capturing non-event
episodes when applied to Turkey.
Meltem Toksoz,
(2000), “The Cukurova: From nomadic life to commercial agriculture, 1800—1908”, PhD, STATE UNIVERSITY
OF NEW YORK AT BINGHAMTON
ABSTRACT:This dissertation, based on Ottoman,
British, French, German, American and Turkish archival and published primary
sources, is the story of capitalist development in Southern Anatolia in the nineteenth
and twentieth centuries. The economic history of the Ottoman
Çukurova revolves around an analysis of the expansion of trade and
agriculture during the age of world trade expansion. The processes of
commercialization at work between 1800–1908 in the
Çukurova reveal one of the most radical nineteenth century
transformations in the Ottoman Empire. My focus on the regional changes that
paved the way for the emergence of large-scale cotton agriculture in a largely
nomadic geography emphasizes the interaction between local and international
forces of commercial development, rather than state policy. These forces began
to take shape during the Egyptian Rule in the Çukurova after which
the region went through a period of slump that the state did not/could not help
change despite its modernizing reforms. The reforms of the Empire reached the
region only after world demand for cotton during the American Civil War
prompted it. In the aftermath of the 1860s, the most important state action
involved the settlement of tribes and immigrants in the Çukurova
which took about thirty years to culminate in an agriculturally settled
populace. Most important was the development of a port-city that facilitated
the integration of the Çukurova to the world economy. The merchants
of the region, successfully connected to world markets, accumulated large
amounts of capital between the 1870s and 1890s which was mostly invested in
large-scale cotton agriculture. By the end of the nineteenth century, a
landholding class made of tribal elements and non-Muslims emerged and turned
the Çukurova into the most important cotton producing region of the
Empire. This regional study of the development of capitalist agriculture is
part and parcel of the Republican history as the Çukurova became one
of the richest regions of Turkey in the 1950s. This dissertation analyzes the
first part of an uninterrupted process of capital accumulation that transcended
the collapse of the Empire and the emergence of a nation-state regime.
Hamdi Hakan Tunc,
(2000), “The challenge of balancing the books: The politics of fiscal deficits
in Turkey, Brazil and Poland”, PhD, UNIVERSITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
ABSTRACT:The fiscal balances of the state vary
widely among developing countries. In some developing countries, fiscal
deficits are both extensive and persistent, while in others they remain
negligible or modest. By examining three democratic middle-income countries
(Turkey, Brazil, and Poland), this study shows that this variance is largely
determined by the nature of a country's major political parties and the style
of their leadership. In Turkey, the party system is dominated by
populist/catchall parties having a strong central leadership which is able to
command a great deal of loyalty. The leaders of these parties appeal to the
electorate through direct mobilization. They also attempt to incorporate large
segments of society at the national level through the distribution of extensive
public resources to popular sectors such as workers and farmers. Therefore,
fiscal balances in Turkey have been characterized by high and persistent
deficits. In Brazil, a clientelist party system is dominant. This type of
system is characterized by political parties that act as vehicles of
pork-barrel politics with a narrow constituency focus at the subnational level.
The central leadership of Brazilian parties is weak and local party patrons
have considerable autonomy to mobilize their constituencies through a
patron-client relationship, rather than through the distribution of public
resources to broad segments of society. Because targeted constituencies are
narrow, resources allocated for the purpose of electoral mobilization are
limited. As a result, fiscal deficits in Brazil have remained modest. In
post-communist Poland, unlike in Turkey and Brazil, the major political parties
do not rely on the vertical mobilization of the masses, neither through
populism nor clientelism. Instead, Polish parties attempt to mobilize the
electorate around certain moral and cultural issues. In addition, the
leadership of most Polish parties delegates decision making to fiscally
conservative technocrats when confronted with economic concerns and issues.
Therefore, one observes low fiscal deficits in Poland.
Hatice Deniz
Yenal, (2000), “Weaving a market: The informal economy and gender in a
transnational trade network between Turkey and the former Soviet Union”, PhD, STATE UNIVERSITY
OF NEW YORK AT BINGHAMTON.
ABSTRACT:This dissertation studies the emergence and
development of informal trade between Turkey and the former Soviet Union (FSU)
particularly Russia in the last decade of the twentieth century. It examines
the economic structure of this trade network as well as the entrepreneurial
activities of, and the gendered social relations between, its culturally
diverse actors in Istanbul and Moscow. Shuttle trade has emerged and developed
as a small-scale entrepreneurial activity spanning many countries, from
production and shopkeeping in Turkey to wholesaling and retailing in the FSU.
All of these activities are characterized by a high degree of informality. This
study seeks to locate the phenomenon of shuttle trade within the ungoing
transformations in the world economy. It argues that, given its
characteristics, shuttle trade cannot be explained either by the current
conceptualizations of globalization, or by reference to the informal economy
literature. Rather, it constitutes a transnational informal economy, which can
be conceptually elaborated in terms of Fernand Braudel's notion of the
stratification of economic life. The dissertation specifically examines the
economic and cultural interactions between the male shopkeepers in Istanbul and
the predominantly female shuttle traders from the FSU. It also studies entrepreneurship
within this transnational market and the process of capital accumulation. It
scrutinizes the relationship between the upper circuits of global economic
flows and small-scale transnational trade exemplified by shuttle trade.
Sadullah Celik, (1999), “Divisia monetary
aggregates: An empirical investigation of their usefulness for Turkey”,PhD, THE
UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA - LINCOLN
ABSTRACT:Money plays an important role in the
economic health of a nation. The amount of money in the economy matters because
it affects real variables (output, employment) and/or nominal variables (price
level). Monetarist view suggests that a target growth rate for a narrow
definition of money be set so that a stable (and low) rate of inflation could
be achieved. This is possible if the demand for money is stable and changes in
the monetary base have a predictable impact on money supply. Therefore, the
performance of a monetary aggregate is examined through a money demand
specification and/or as an effective monetary target in the conduct of monetary
policy. Empirical work in the 1970s showed that broad monetary aggregates like
M2 were closely correlated with such potential policy target variables as
output, unemployment and inflation. Several countries such as Germany, the
United Kingdom and the United States declared monetary aggregates as
intermediate targets. By mid-1980s however, the stability of money demand
relationship was questioned and the target growth rates of monetary aggregates
became unpredictable. Monetary authorities were forced to abandon monetary
targeting or monitor monetary aggregates as economic policy indicators along
with other variables like inflation and interest rates. The poor performance of
monetary aggregates and the instability of money demand functions were
attributed to financial innovations, inadequate econometric methodology and
restrictive conventional framework of the analysis. Under such circumstances,
Barnett (1980) suggested the microfoundations approach and his subsequent work
has shown that weighted monetary aggregates could outperform simple-sum
monetary aggregates. The theoretical framework of the microfoundations approach
derives from monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers. This
approach constructs new monetary aggregates and compares their performance with
simple-sum monetary aggregates. This dissertation empirically investigates the
microfoundations approach for four of the G-7 countries (Germany, Japan, United
Kingdom and United States) and a developing country (Turkey), using,
cointegration analysis, stability test and Granger-causality. My results
indicate the superiority of microfoundations approach in all of the countries.
Mehmet Asim Karaomerlioglu, (1999),“The cult
of the peasant: Ideology and practice, Turkey, 1930-1946”,PhD, THE OHIO STATE
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This study focuses on the cult of the
peasant, advocated by the Turkish ruling elite as the most important
constituent element of Kemalist populism from the early 1930s through the end
of World War II. Embodied in the so-called peasantist
[<italic>köycü</italic>] ideology and practices,
the advocates in Turkey of the cult of the peasant, among other things, denied
class-based ideologies; aspired to a static, undifferentiated society;
attempted to find a mass base for nationalism in a predominantly agrarian
country while preempting grass-roots movements; feared and vilified socialist
revolution; recognized the need to respond to the demands of the agrarian
population in the troubled times of the Great Depression; aimed to consolidate
the conservatism of the regime by relying on the supposedly conservative fabric
of the Turkish peasants; and inspired a nationalist myth-making process that
sought the “real” Turk in villages. In light of the
intellectual history of the peasantist ideology, this study examines the
People’s Houses, the Village Institutes, land reform, and the
literature of early Republican era; and by so doing, challenges conventional
historiographical assessments about these issues. The peasantist activities of
the People’s Houses ended in a fiasco because of its inherent
bureaucratic and elitist nature. The Village Institutes, although started with
conservative concerns, turned out to challenge the limits of governing
elite’s populist tolerance, and perhaps because of this reason they
were closed. Likewise, the land reform attempts of the single-party regime,
contrary to what have been argued about them, were attempts to attach the
peasants to their villages, broaden the size of the propertied peasant class,
limit mobility in the countryside and immigration to the cities, and prevent
the spread of leftist and radical movements by winning the support of small
peasants. The overall conclusion from these different, but related intellectual
pursuits and practices points to the fact that such peasantist practices of the
single-party regime should be perceived as a “conservative”
rather than a “progressive” modernization. The dissertation
also discusses the peasantist ideologies of Germany and Bulgaria of the
inter-war era in order to shed light into the peculiarities of the Turkish
case.
Gulay Tokcan
McDonald, (1999), ”International capital flows: An evaluation of Turkish
capital flight”,PhD,
CITY
UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK
ABSTRACT:Capital flight was a major economic concern
during the early eighties. More recently, events in South America, Asia, and
elsewhere have shown that it remains an important issue for individual
countries and the entire world. Given the issue's importance, there is an
extensive amount of literature on capital Right on the subject but there is
still not a common definition of capital flight. The study reviews the major
definitions and estimates the determinants of capital flight in Turkey from
1971–1995. In early studies, the major reasons for capital flight
were high inflation, overvaluation of currencies and interest rate differences
between the country under study and the United States. Using the five major capital
flight measures with Turkish economic data reveals that four definitions (World
Bank, Morgan Guaranty, Cline, and Dooley) yield similar results while the
Cuddington method differs significantly. In this study, capital controls in the
country, deficit to GNP ratio, overvaluation of the Turkish Lira and real and
nominal interest rate differentials between Turkey and Germany are revealed to
be the key determinants for capital flight from Turkey. The results show that
capital control, overvaluation of the currency, high deficit-GNP ratio and
nominal interest rate differences enter the equation significantly with the
expected signs. Real interest rate differentials do not appear to be a
significant factor in determining capital flight from Turkey. The study also looks
at the effect of political instability on capital flight, the results are
insignificant.
Selin Sayek,
(1999), ”Foreign direct investment and inflation: Theory and evidence”,PhD,
DUKE UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:Following the debt crisis, the composition
of capital flows changed in favor of foreign direct investment (FDI).
Simultaneously there was an outgrowth of literature on the determinants of FDI.
Most of this work focused on exchange rates, tax rates and locational
advantages, but for the large part ignored inflation. This study intends to
fill this vacuum. The investment decision of a multinational firm (MNF) is
modeled and simulated using US investments in Turkey and Canada as two case
studies. The first part consists of a theoretical model based on the dynamic
optimization problem of a representative agent, in a general equilibrium
framework for a small open economy. The agent is a MNF. Following Lucas' (1982)
timing structure, the MNF chooses consumption and investment both at the home
and host country. Money is introduced through cash-in-advance constraints to
capture the real effects of inflation. In this framework, home country
inflation acts as a tax on labor supply and domestic investment, while host
country inflation acts as a tax on FDI. Additionally the MNF substitutes
foreign (domestic) for domestic (foreign) investment as domestic (foreign)
inflation increases. The general formulation of taxes allows analysis of the
effects of different tax laws on the investment and repatriation decisions of
the MNF. All cases show that increased domestic (foreign) taxes reduce domestic
(foreign) investment, shifting it to foreign (domestic) investments. The main
changes happen in the repatriation decisions of the MNF. The theoretical model
is applied to US investments in Canada, a low inflation country, and Turkey, a
high inflation country. Den Haan and Marcet's (1991) parametrized expectations
method is utilized to obtain numerical solutions. The solutions are used in
simulating US investments in Canada and Turkey. Both simulations provide
moments of variables that are consistent with the actual data. The results from
an impulse response analysis supports the theoretical model, showing a 3%
increase in Canadian inflation reducing US FDI in Canada by 2% and increasing
US domestic investment by 1%. Similarly a 7% increase in Turkish inflation
reduces US FDI in Turkey by 1.9%, increasing US domestic investment by 0.3%.
Murat
Somer, (1999), ”Diversity vs. unity: Causes and dynamics of ethnic polarization
(Former Yugoslavia, Turkey)”,
PhD,
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ABSTRACT:Using
a cascade model that builds upon Kuran's dual preference model, and developing
an explanation for private identity formation, the dissertation provides a
theory of how ethnic hatreds are endogenously produced by ethnic polarization.
The explanation is then applied to ethnic relations in the former Yugoslavia
and Turkey. The dissertation explains how privately held ethnic identities, and
their public expressions change in response to intrinsic and extrinsic
incentives available in a society's institutional environment. Implications for
multiculturalism and for ethnic and racial relations in the US and others are
also discussed. <italic>Ethnic polarization </italic>is the
diffusion of a certain image that portrays ethnic identities as mutually
exclusive and incompatible with belonging to the same nation. The diffusion of
this <italic>divisive image </italic> results from the interaction
of cognitive and social processes. Ethnic polarization can sometimes occur in
private only, as people suppress their public support for the divisive image
through <italic>downward ethnic preference falsification</italic>.
Alternatively, people can publicly exaggerate their sympathy for the divisive image
through <italic>upward preference falsification </italic>. The
degree of ethnic preference falsification, the degree to which information
dissemination is monopolized, the activities of ethnic entrepreneurs, and the
number of social reference groups in society affect the likelihood and severity
of polarization. The explanation yields several policy implications.
Restrictions upon the public expressions of ethnic identities are shown to
contribute to subsequent radical polarization, unless the restrictions are
backed by long-term policies that reduce downward preference falsification.
Comprehensive restrictions on ethnic activity implemented to stem polarization
may in fact increase private polarization if they disproportionately affect
ethnic activities that promote a compatible image. Cognitive, social and
economic incentives that encourage the cultivation of an ethnic image
portraying ethnic identities as mutually inclusive and compatible with the same
national identity reduce the possibility of ethnic polarization. Finally, the
dissertation shows that ethnic entrepreneurs who promote the divisive image in
order to prop up their group members' ethnic identity may inadvertently
encourage the assimilation of their co-ethnics into the dominant ethnic group
in their society.
Mehmet Taner Yigit, (1999), “Effects of inflation
uncertainty on credit markets: A disequilibrium approach”,
PhD ,
THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL
ABSTRACT:While average levels of inflation have been
constantly declining in the industrial countries, developing countries have
been plagued with higher levels of inflation and inflation uncertainty. The
adverse effects of inflation uncertainty on financial markets (Mexico
1986–89, Turkey 1979–81, etc.) have attracted substantial
research attention. This analysis advances the inflation uncertainty literature
by adding the possibility of excess demand to facilitate examination of the
impact of uncertainty upon both sides of credit markets. An excess demand model
not only provides a more precise characterization of the effects of inflation
uncertainty on loan demand and supply, but also yields different coefficient
values due to the Lucas critique. Rather than using credit rationing or
inflexible price arguments in the creation of disequilibrium, the ensuing
analysis utilizes the interaction of stochastic loan repayment and risk
aversion as grounds for disequilibrium. This creates a non-monotonic loan
supply and a basis for excess demand in credit markets enabling us to analyze
both sides of the credit market even when the demand is unobservable. With this
approach, banks are affected by a combination of credit and interest rate risks
while firms face real return uncertainty. In such a setting inflation
uncertainty adversely affects both sides of the market. Empirical results
support the backward bending loan supply claim for some of the countries used
in the analysis. Examining firm responses toward the variance of returns shows
the existence of risk-averse behavior in financial firms. In addition to these
findings, inflation uncertainty seems to affect the credit markets either
indirectly through its impact on loan rates or directly by quantity effects.
With a view toward previous assertions in the model concerning both sides being
adversely affected, the magnitudes of the changes are aggregated to exhibit
increases in disequilibrium. with higher inflation fluctuations. The effect of
financial market liberalization on disequilibrium is also analyzed to
demonstrate that deregulation alone does not ensure credit market equilibrium,
but has to be accompanied by measures to reduce uncertainty levels. Finally, the
results of all estimations are compared for developing and developed country
financial markets.
Arfe
Yucedag, (1999), “Wage differences between male and female teachers in Turkey”
,
PhD ,
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this
study is to investigate the possible existence of earning differentials between
male and female teachers in Turkey. The main question is whether or not there
is a wage gap between male and female teachers when human capital variables are
held constant. In the literature, there are studies that indicate that males
and females are earning differently. These differences between male and female
earnings have been explained by the differences in human capital that males and
females accumulate. In the private sector, human capital explanations can work
but in the government sector where every one is a civil servant and supposedly
is paid equally, this explanation does not work. In Turkey, teachers are civil
servants and paid by the central government under a rigid salary schedule. This
study explores wage inequality between sexes in the government sector. There
are two samples examined in this study. The national sample includes data from
combined elementary school (G1–G8), middle schools and high schools.
It does not contain data from independent elementary schools (G1–G5).
The second sample comes from an urban city, Ankara. There are 6 schools in the
smaller sample: 2 G1–G8 schools, 2 regular high schools and 2
technical high schools. The two samples could not be merged because they did
not have an identical variable that would allow for a linked data set. Thus,
the national sample is used to describe the general population and the smaller
sample is used to explore salary differences between male and female teachers.
Five Ordinary Linear Regression models are performed. The first model explores
salary difference between sexes. Second level models are created to investigate
the variables that affect salary indirectly: derece<super>1</super>
and school types in which the teachers work. In the first model, sex does not
affect salary significantly but salary is powerfully affected by the derece
variable. In the second model, derece is affected by sex, which shows the
indirect effect of sex on salary through derece. Type of schools where the
teachers work also make difference in salary. Regular high school and
elementary school teachers are paid lower than the technical school teachers.
Hence, this study concludes that even under a very rigid salary schedule,
gender is still playing a role. How much a teacher is paid is affected by
gender not directly but indirectly through the other variables.
<super>1</super>Derece is the place on the salary schedule. In its
original form, it starts from 9 to 1 and lower numbers mean higher in salary
and higher numbers mean lower salary. In model 2, it is used in original form,
but for other analysis, three dichotomous variables are created, D321, D654,
D987.
H.S Okumus, (1999), ”Profitability analysis of Turkish banking within
the European single market for financial services (BL)” ,PhD Thesis, Anglia P,
49-3226, B8g
ABSTRACT:The primary
objective of this dissertation is to empirically investigate profitability
performance in Turkish banking. In view of Turkey's long-standing and on-going
relationship with the European Union (EU), the study is carried out within the
context of the European single market for financial services. This context
leads to several interesting questions, such as: "is market structure or efficiency
the major determinant of profitability performance"; and "how best
can the high level of inflation in Turkey be accounted for when measuring
profitability performance?". The first question is particularly
interesting from the perspective of the likely increases in competition that
would follow if Turkish financial markets were to integrate with those of
Europe. The second question is pertinent since variable and high levels of
inflation over any period can lead to significant distortion of financial statements
and hence, the most common measures of profitability. This dissertation appears
to be the first study to employ all of the techniques described below to
analyse the profitability of Turkish banking in the light of such questions.
A
significant amount of background analysis is required to achieve comprehensive
answers to the questions raised above. This first involves an overview of the
relationship between Turkey and the EU, and analysis of the Turkish economy and
financial system. In addition to being of independent interest, such analysis
suggests a suitable time-frame upon which to base this work. Ultimately, the
time-frame 1989-1995 is chosen, since it was in 1989 that Turkish financial
institutions gained considerable freedom in terms of international market
activities, allowing them to truly benefit from the liberalisation programmes
of the 1980s. Further to this fundamental background, the analysis of
profitability performance necessitates a detailed analysis of the banking
industry as a whole. This is carried out for the Turkish banking industry via
vertical and horizontal analysis of aggregate balance sheet data. Such analysis
identifies major characteristics of the industry and as such, it facilitates
the assessment of profitability performance and the construction of empirical
models to test for the relationships between profitability, market structure
and efficiency in Turkish banking. In addition to financial statement analysis,
the intermediation role of banks, the effect of public sector borrowing
requirements and currency substitution are also discussed. Comparisons are made
with EU banking industries as a benchmark.
Yasemin
Biro, (1998), “Prospects for local community participation in the management of
the Goksu Delta Protected Special Area in Turkey”,
PhD,
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
ABSTRACT:Protected areas have been promoted globally
as a solution to biodiversity loss. However, they have resulted in local
conflicts by adversely impacting local communities who depend on the protected
resources and who become hostile towards conservation efforts when denied
access to and control over these resources. Local participation is now viewed
as crucial to avoiding local conflict in protected areas. However, most
attempts at participation around the world have been top-down and
paternalistic, fearing that once empowered to make their own decisions, local
communities will decide not to pursue conservation goals. This fear is based on
the assumption that there is an inherent disjuncture between global
environmental concerns and local interests, and that local communities are
unaware of nature's value and therefore unconcerned with and opposed to nature
conservation. This dissertation investigates the validity of this assumption in
the context of the Goksu Delta Protected Special Area (PSA) in Turkey and shows
that it does not hold. It evaluates the prospects for local participation in
nature conservation in the PSA based on the attitudes of local communities
toward nature conservation in general and the PSA in particular. Moreover, it
documents the socio-economic presence of the communities and proposes ways to
incorporate this presence into conservation efforts while minimizing its
environmental impacts. Results show that local communities both in and outside
the PSA value nature in general and want Turkey's nature to be protected.
However, communities outside the PSA are more likely to contribute to
conservation efforts in the PSA. Communities within are less supportive of the
PSA because they are adversely impacted by it. Measures to reduce the adverse
impacts of the PSA may help enlist support for the PSA from within. However, such
measures can succeed only if they address the prior rights, needs and wants of
these communities. Genuine local participation in nature conservation will
occur only when the communities are empowered to make the decisions that
influence their lives and their environment. For this to happen, conservation
managers must understand local values and attitudes, regard local communities
as 'allies' and learn to trust them.
Selvin Cavusoglu,
(1998), ”Financial implications of pension reform in Turkey”
,
DBA,
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:As the size of the elderly population
increases, the world's publicly managed pay-as-you-go systems, where the
current retirees support the current pensioners, are experiencing a growing
burden of financial problems. In response to these trends, many countries,
including Turkey, are examining alternative pension system arrangements. This
study analyzes the financial implications of alternative forms of pension
reform in Turkey. The study builds a simulation model to evaluate the current
condition and the future evolution of the existing Turkish pension system. The
results show that the current pay-as-you-go system in Turkey is financially
bankrupt and cannot be sustained with its existing parameters. The model is
then used to study the financial implications of improving the parameters of
the current system, such as increasing the retirement ages, decreasing the
benefit levels, increasing the contribution rates, or combinations of the
three. The simulations conclude that increasing the retirement ages can improve
the financial condition of the system in the short-run. However, more radical
improvements in a combination of the parameters are required to ensure long-run
solvency. This study also evaluates the financial implications of privatizing
the pension system in Turkey and uses the simulation model to measure the
transition costs of moving from the current public pay-as-you-go system to a
Chilean-style mandatory personal savings scheme. The results show that the
transition costs of a radical transformation to a private system can be
substantial, unless the parameters of the Turkish system is improved before
starting the privatization process. The study then uses option pricing methods
to determine the government insurance costs associated with the privatization
scenario. The results highlight the importance of a careful management of the
government insurance business through asset restrictions and hedging
requirements in order to keep the potentially high costs of the government
guarantee to a minimum.
Suleyman
Gokcan,(1998),“A dynamic model of stock market integration between emerging and
developed markets”
, PhD ,CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK
ABSTRACT:The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the time varying integration versus segmentation question for a number of emerging stock markets including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Turkey vis-a-vis a global developed stock markets, and discuss the various issues regarding the volatility, and the predictability of the emerging stock market portfolio returns using both global and domestic information variables. I also analyzed the effect of time varying integration of the stock markets on return and risk of the investment of emerging markets. In this model expected returns, risks (variances and covariances), price of the risks, and integration measure are time varying. The variances in the model are calculated monthly by using ARCH (Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). Integration measure is formulated as logistic function of the local information variables, and takes the values between zero and one. I find the evidence supporting the hypothesis that all five countries in my sample are becoming more integrated with developed stock markets. As emerging stock markets become more integrated, their stock returns would response to same information variables as developed stock markets do.
R.A De Santis,(1998), “Trade policy and general equilibrium under
different market regimes with numerical applications to Turkey (BL)”, Ph.D,
Warwick UNIVERSITY,COVENTRY,(U.K)
ABSTRACT:This dissertation
investigates issues concerning export quotas and tariffs within a general
equilibrium (GE) framework, under assumptions of both perfect and imperfect
competitive markets, when trade is all intraindustry. The dissertation
addresses important, though relatively neglected, contemporary trade policy
issues in the developing world, such as Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) and
optimal export taxes. Given the complexity of the GE analysis with increasing
returns to scale and imperfect competition, I also employ computational
techniques in order to better understand the economic implications of trade
policies, especially with regard to the impact on welfare, which is often
analytically ambiguous. The empirical analysis has been applied to Turkey,
being a middle-income developing country which still applies high tariffs and
export quotas. However, the empirical findings have a wider application.
Firstly, I provide a different rationale from the standard literature as to why
VERs are accepted by exporting firms. The essence of the argument is that a VER
serves as an institution to prevent entry and, therefore, to protect the
monopoly power of incumbent firms in both domestic and export markets. The
impact on social welfare is indeterminate. However, numerical results for Turkey
support the conjecture that with the elimination of a VER an exporting country
is worse off, and that this welfare loss is larger, the smaller the country in
question. Secondly, I argue that an export tax, considered to be optimal in a
partial equilibrium (PE) framework, might be sub-optimal in a GE setting. In
fact, all numerical simulations support the view that the PE export tax leads
to a social welfare loss. I also demonstrate analytically that the PE formula
is upwardly biased. Finally, a further issue has been analysed, which refers to
the impact of regional agreements on income distribution and employment, which
are two of the most contentious issues among economists and policy-makers, in
the areas of tariffs and quotas. Given the complexity of the analysis in a
multi-household and multi-factor framework, I apply a GE model with constant
returns to scale and perfect competition to study the impact on welfare, income
distribution and employment of the recent customs union (CU) agreement between
Turkey and the European Union (EU) on the Turkish economy. The numerical
results indicate that the CU is not trade diverting. Most importantly, this
agreement might substantially raise income inequality between urban and rural
household members, suggesting that analysis based only on assumptions, which
characterise the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, might be misleading. In addition,
the CU favour the creation of 148 thousands new jobs, mainly with basic skills.
So, in conclusion, I argue that (i) VERs are agreed to protect the monopoly
power of incumbent firms and to enhance possibly the welfare of the exporting
country; (ii) export taxes are upwardly biased and non-optimal; (iii) the
regional agreement with the EU raises Turkish employment and might raise income
inequality among household members.
A. Helvaci,(1998), “The influence of liberalism on Turkish economy,
politics and civic culture with particular reference to the Ozal era (BL)”,
PhD, Sheffield UNIVERSITY,(UK)
ABSTRACT:This thesis
analyses liberal policies which were introduced to Turkey by the Ozal
governments and which had great effects on all aspects of Turkish life economy,
politics and society. The liberalisation process started with the 24 January
1980 economic measures, which meant a new direction for the statist Turkish
economy. This process was one of the manifestations of a new ideology about the
role of the state in Turkey.
As a result of these policies,
Turkish economic management has radically shifted towards export-oriented
economic policies and programmes. To overcome the restrictions on the economy,
many policies and regulatory changes have been implemented. Government
intervention on the overall economy has been significantly reduced, price
controls have been removed and exports have been encouraged. Briefly, the
economy has become more liberal than ever before, though the process has not
been fully completed.
The thesis looks at the current
political and bureaucratic structure which derives from the 1982 Constitution
and wider political and constitutional changes under the Ozal governments in
Turkey, examining them as a set of doctrines and as a set of policy goals
within the context of Motherland Party politics in the 1980s. This includes an
evaluation of their relationship to neo-Liberal ideas, and also their
effectiveness. Although the Ozal government failed to introduce a democratic
and liberal constitution in the end, there is no question that Turkey is a more
open and a more democratic country than it was 10 or 15 years ago.
On
the other hand, Turkey has witnessed the explosive emergence of civil societal
associations as a major collective agent in various activities as a result of
new political, social and especially economic policies under the neo-liberal paradigm
of reducing and restructuring the state. Moreover, these policies have a
considerable impact on the political values of the masses, as the 1991 World
Values Survey suggests. A quantitative analysis of this survey in Turkey
discussed in chapter seven highlights political value changes during the Ozal
period.
M. Karadag,(1997), “The effects of VAT harmonisation with the EU on the
Turkish economy: a CGE approach (BL)”, PhD, Loughborough UNIVERSITY,(UK)
ABSTRACT:Turkey has recently
applied to become a member of the European Union (EU). The ultimate goal is
full membership of the EU and with this application Turkey is obliged to
undertake changes to the structure of the economy as a means of preparing for
membership. Turkey's integration into the EU will result in the strict adoption
of certain EU principles. In particular, all applicants are expected to adopt
EU fiscal structures, for example the use of VAT as the main turnover tax. With
regard to this, Turkey introduced VAT in 1985 even before her membership and
followed the developments in the EU as far as VAT harmonisation is concerned.
For Turkey, harmonisation as
currently envisaged will involve an upward increase in VAT rates. The rise in
the rates and changes in the structures of Turkish VAT will naturally affect
the Turkish economy as a result of harmonisation. In this study, we analyse the
effects of changes on the Turkish economy in the structure and rates of VAT to
the levels proposed by the European Commission in 1987. Therefore, we develop a
computable general equilibrium tax model of the Turkish economy to simulate the
effects of VAT harmonisation with the EU on mainly relative prices, resource
allocation, and income distribution and welfare changes between the households,
by using information contained in the Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey
constructed for 1990.
We
have simulated the effects of the tax policy changes considering three possible
scenarios. Simulation results suggest that the tax policy changes would have
small effects on production sectors relative to consumption sectors. Regarding
production side, the changes would lead to a general price increase in many
sectors.
M. Vitur,(1997), “The European Community's external policy-making
process: the case of EC-Turkey association, 1973-1993”, PhD, London School of
Economics, London,(UK)
ABSTRACT:This thesis
examines the European Community's (EC's) policy-making process in the area of
external relations within an analytical framework that attempts at transcending
the difficulties encountered in either state-centric
(Realist/Neo-realist/International Regimes) or society-centric
(Functionalist/Neo-functionalist) approaches to European integration. The
proposed analytical framework is based on state-society interaction and the
implications of (i) the nature of policy issues and (ii) the extent of
centrifugal societal tendencies for that interaction. The nature of policy
issues refers to the degree of transparency/divisibility that makes the policy
issue compatible with the construction of package deals, while centrifugal
societal tendencies refer to the extent of societal pressure that the
member-states are faced with in relation to a certain policy issue. The thesis
argues that the Community's policy-making process in the area of external
relations will tend to be 'integrative' and the policy stance will tend to be
less exclusionist as the indices of transparency/divisibility and centrifugal
societal tendencies increase. In this framework, EC external policy-making is
neither a linear and cumulative process determined by the exigencies of a
'spill-over' logic nor an erratic series of intergovernmental compromises: it
is determined by a primordial tendency for convergence among national
policy-making processes as a result of state-society interaction.
Following
the development of the analytical framework, the thesis examines the
Community's policy-making process in relation to trade in sensitive sectors
(agriculture and textiles), human rights, immigration, and the Cyprus problem -
in terms of both general evolution and in the specific context of EC-Turkey
association. The findings lend support to the analytical framework and certain
propositions that can be derived from it.
U.M. Cakmakci,(1997), “The political economy of governance: an integral
economic analysis of textile and apparel sectors in Turkey (BL)” ,PhD,
Lancaster UNIVERSITY,(UK)
ABSTRACT:Governance is a
neglected concept in the economics and social sciences literature concerned
with competitiveness. My objective in this thesis is to suggest a way to
demonstrate its significance in relation to the textile and apparel
(henceforth, T&A) chain in Turkey. The period of concern to my thesis is
post-1980 era with a natural end point of the completion of the customs union
with the EU at the end of 1995. My overall approach can be described as integral
economics.
My
thesis initially deploys a commodity chain approach in narrow economic terms to
highlight the divisions in T&A. But it goes beyond this narrow economic
approach by exploring the political economy of power relations. I show that
while exchange relations create both conflicts and
interdependence in the chain and thereby influence competition, co-operation
and complementarity within it (e.g. in the cotton link and between textile and
apparel), power relations outside the chain (e.g. in manufacturing more
generally and among production-commerce-finance and labour-business-state) also
significantly affect valorisation. In this context, I show the significance of
regulation and governance for the T&A chain by illustrating the role of
governance practices' and their contribution to social and socio-economic cohesion
in establishing and securing competitiveness. I particularly show how the
economic, political and social environment of the chain is regulated to promote
expanded T&A production and to improve the prospects of EU integration both
economically and politically. In this regard, there is a marked interdependence
between the interests of T&A and those of the Turkish state. Thus, I
explore how the dynamic of the T&A sector is shaped by the specificities of
the Turkish 'developmental' state and how the sector is integrated in turn into
the modernisation project of the state in different phases of this development.
Berna Saniye
Bayazitoglu,(1997),“Bidder behavior and market outcomes in Treasury bill
auctions” ,
PhD ,CORNELL
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This dissertation is an empirical attempt
to discover characteristics of bidder behavior in Treasury bill auctions. The
dataset we use includes participant-identified bids in 29 discriminatory
auctions from Turkey. The complexity of the auction environment, the lack of a
firm theoretical framework and the heterogeneity of market participants present
a real challenge for a sound analysis of this dataset. In the first part of the
dissertation, reduced form econometric models are estimated to test the
implications of the theory on common value first-price sealed-bid auctions, as
there does not exist a satisfactory theoretical model of discriminatory
Treasury bill auctions. Results suggest that the bidders mark down their bid
prices more as the expected dispersion of opinion about the true value of the
bill increases, as is the case in the simple analogue of the Treasury bill
auctions. It is also the case that as the number of bidders increases in these
auctions, increased competition overcomes the considerations of winner's curse,
and the bidders mark down their bid prices less if they expect high
participation in these auctions. We also show that the Treasury benefits from a
policy of revealing any information that will reduce the uncertainty about the
true value of the bills, provided that the bidding strategies remain unchanged.
The information spillover from the auction to the secondary market is also
documented in this part. In the second part of the dissertation, we adopt an
alternative econometric approach to the study of the Treasury bill auctions.
The approach is reduced form in the descriptive analysis of the behavior of the
agents and is structural in the analysis of the equilibrium implications of
these. We break down the complicated decision problem of the bidder into its
components and analyze each of the components separately. The main finding from
this part of the dissertation is that the dataset can be characterized by the
bidders' use of a simple decision rule: Bidders can be described as forming
minimum and maximum bid prices based on the result of the previous auction held
by the Treasury, then picking a random number of prices in this interval and deciding
on the bid quantities. This decision rule, coupled with the Treasury's interest
rate targeting policy, performs remarkably well in mimicking both the market
outcomes and the bidder-specific statistics. The last part of the dissertation
builds upon the main finding from the previous part. We analyze the performance
of a single-bid decision rule for a specific bidder in the simulated data,
given the bidding decisions of the remaining bidders. Our results indicate that
the single-bid decision rule based on the primary source of public information
cannot improve upon the payoffs from the multiple bids generated on the basis
of the decision rule 'uncovered' in the previous part.
BACK
Recep Boztemur ,(1997),“State making and nation building
in Turkey: A study of the historical relation between the capitalist
development and the establishment of the modern nation-state”
,PhD,
THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
ABSTRACT:This study analyzes various approaches to
the nature of the state. A comprehensive analysis of the nature of objective
relations between the state and society is the point of departure from which to
understand specific histories of state making and nation building in the
Ottoman and Turkish settings. Contrary to ahistorical, essentialist, and static
approaches to the state by developmentalist, Marxist, and statist paradigms,
this study develops a definition of the state based on the notions of the separation
of the political sphere from the sphere of civil society and from the
territoriality, centrality, binding rule-making and rule-enforcing
characteristics of the modern nation-state. The study also examines the
separation and territoriality characteristics which constitute the essence of
the autonomous power of the state. The emergence of the modern state in the
Ottoman Empire and its transformation into the nation state in the Turkish
Republic is taken as the case to be tested by the state definition of this
thesis. The general conditions of the modern state appear, as this study
suggests, to be the development of a modern bureaucracy, the enhancing capacity
of the state to extract resources over a delimited territory, the increasing
power of the administrative apparatus to make and enforce law, the connection
between the conduct of war and the growth of the administrative apparatus, the
homogenization of the population, and the role of the state in economic
affairs. The analysis of the state in the Ottoman-Turkish setting proves that
the rise of the modern state coincides with the consolidation of capitalist
relations and that the modern nation state draws the institutional boundaries
of industrial capitalism. The study also examines the notion of the state
within the intersection of classes and the system of states.
Yesim Muazzez Elhan
,(1997),“Financial liberalization and economic development: The case of Turkey”
, PhD,
UNIVERSITY OF
CALIFORNIA, RIVERSIDE
ABSTRACT:In 1980, faced with
a severe economic crisis, the Turkish government adopted a comprehensive
economic stabilization and structural adjustment program, a substantial part of
which targeted financial restructuring. Based on the McKinnon-Shaw (1973)
framework, the program initiated the transition from a regulated to a
liberalized financial system. This dissertation critically assesses the impact
of interest rate deregulation as part of the financial liberalization program
implemented in Turkey. The premise of the program was that when interest rates
are deregulated, deposit and loan rates would increase in a capital scarce
market, and the higher returns to deposits would attract more savings into the
formal financial sector, increasing the volume of loanable funds to the private
sector. Higher availability of credit would then promote the previously
quantity-constrained investment, leading to growth in the long-run. The
behavior of interest rates, saving, and investment was examined with
descriptive statistics and through econometric analysis for the 1970-1994
period. The results obtained lead to the conclusion that interest rates and
savings increase erratically with the implementation of the financial
liberalization program. However, no evidence for positive relationships between
interest rates, savings, and investment is found. Moreover, the ultimate goal
of higher investment rates is not attained. The spreads between deposit and
loan rates remain high and erratic throughout the entire period, as an
indication of operational inefficiency in the banking sector. New financial
instruments and markets are introduced, but they fail to present an effective
alternative to the existing oligopolistic banking structure. Simultaneous
macroeconomic restructuring and financial liberalization resulted in
instability and uncertainty in Turkey, while failing to realize the balanced
growth objective set in 1980. From the observations of the model and the way it
was implemented in Turkey, two policy implications emerged. Macroeconomic
stability measures need to precede financial restructuring for the latter to be
more effective. More generally, this dissertation argues that while financial
restructuring was clearly necessary in Turkey in the 1980s, a more gradualist
approach, in which policy-triggered economic changes and the structure of the
Turkish economy are factored into policy-making, may have yielded better
economic results than direct financial liberalization.
Simel
Esim,(1997),“Gender-based factors affecting the earnings of women entrepreneurs
in Turkey”
, PhD ,
THE AMERICAN
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:The study argues that social and
institutional factors accompany human capital factors in determining earnings
of the self-employed. Some of these determinants are gender-based factors
affecting women's earnings only. The study challenges the human capital
approach and develops an alternative model that identifies social and
institutional factors that are determinants of earnings. This study is
significant because it explains the gender-based earnings gap by taking into
account the interaction between economic factors and prevailing social and
institutional structures, with women entrepreneurs as the norm. Using data from
a 1995 survey of 705 women and men entrepreneurs, the study shows that the
economic, social and institutional constraints on the earnings of women are
different from those on men. Women's increased mobility and access to
information and markets influence their earnings positively while these factors
do not have significant effects on the earnings of men. Therefore, it is necessary
to recognize and address the gender-based constraints faced by women when
developing economic development policies in the fields of poverty alleviation
and gender-equity.
H. Ayse Gunduz
Hosgor,(1997)“Development and women's employment status: Evidence from the
Turkish Republic, 1923-1990”
, PhD,
THE UNIVERSITY OF
WESTERN ONTARIO (CANADA)
ABSTRACT:This dissertation examines the employment
status of women in the Turkish Republic (1923-1990) from the point of view of
historical, social, economic and political change in the country. Recent
theoretical approaches (modernization theory, and Marxist perspectives) are
criticized in the thesis for not providing a complete analysis of women-gender
and development, particularly for understanding Muslim women's economic status.
It is proposed that in addition to the economic and social questions, political
ideology needs to be taken into account in studying women's employment status
in 'Third-World' countries. After an analysis of the social and political context
of economic development in Turkey, the thesis focuses on the impact of Kemalism
and the political ideology of Islam on women's employment status. The findings
suggest that the modernization movements, which began in the nineteenth century
in the Ottoman Empire and continued in the Turkish state, played a significant
role in the advancement of women's rights. The political context of these
modernization attempts included changing economic policies with regard to
production and trade. It is argued that the Kemalist regime introduced rights
for women for three reasons: (1) women were utilized to spread the secular
bourgeois ideology, (2) women became an important source of labour,
particularly for white-collar occupations, and (3) educated women also took part
in their own emancipation movement. Although several rights were introduced for
women, the Kemalist and post-Kemalist reforms still included patriarchal
components. While, the government encouraged women's employment, policies
reinforced traditional ideologies about women's primary roles as wives and
mothers. Thus, the findings suggests that 'traditional' and 'modern' values are
not mutually exclusive, but rather have coexisted. Turkish women's economic
position covers a wide range of circumstances. On the one hand, a group of
'modern' educated professional women have occupied high-status jobs in
white-collar occupations, resulting partly from Kemalist reforms, although they
are largely not in decision-making positions. On the other hand, peasant women have
been engaged in production as unpaid family workers. The analysis also suggests
that over the last thirty years, women have shifted from unpaid family workers
in the rural areas to low-paid workers in the urban informal economy. Women are
integrated mostly in labour-intensive industry with significantly lower wages
and substantially 'unskilled' positions compared to men. The conclusion of this
thesis is that women's employment status in Turkey has been affected by
economic development policies and political ideologies.
Onur Ozsoy,(1997),“Military
expenditures and their impact on the economic growth of Turkey and Greece”
, PhD,
STATE
UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BINGHAMTON
ABSTRACT:The main objective of this dissertation is
to analyze empirically the relationship between military expenditures and
economic growth for the cases of Turkey and Greece for the time period
1950-1992. In this study, the defense-growth relationship is examined within
the framework of a neoclassical economic growth model. The economy is divided
into three sectors: the nonmilitary public sector; the military public sector,
and the civilian sector, depicted as N, M, and C, respectively. Three factors
of production, namely, capital, labor, and human capital, are used in the
model. It is assumed that each factor contributes to the total output at each
point in time. The model is designed to capture the combined externality effects
and factor productivity differentials of the military and the nonmilitary
public sectors on the rest of the economy. The externality effects and the
productivity differentials are also computed separately. In addition, the total
impact of the nonmilitary public sector, the civilian sector, and the rival's
military expenditures on economic growth is estimated in the context of this
study. This study finds that there is a positive association between defense
spending and economic growth for Turkey for the period 1950-1992, while the
total impact of military spending on economic growth for Greece is not
statistically significant. However, the externality effects of military sectors
are computed to be negative but insignificant for both the cases. The factor productivity
differentials of the military public sectors in Turkey and Greece produced
inconclusive results. The factor productivity differential of the nonmilitary
public sector was found negative and significant for the case of Greece.
However, in the case of Turkey, the factor productivity differential of the
nonmilitary public sector was inconclusive. The impact of the nonmilitary
public sector on economic growth for Turkey is detected positive for all the
models estimated. However, in the case of Greece, the model produced
inconclusive results. On the other hand, the externality effect of nonmilitary
public sector is positive both for Turkey and Greece.
Ali
Tekin,(1997),“The political economy of Turkish foreign trade policy reforms:
The cases of 1958, 1970 and 1980 compared”,
PhD, UNIVERSITY OF
PITTSBURGH
ABSTRACT:In recent decades, many developing
countries have launched trade reforms aimed at an export-oriented strategy.
While most of these countries have experienced a reversal of these reforms,
only a few have managed to sustain them. What explains these two different paths?
Why is a sustained reform such a rare occurrence? What do the successful
governments do? This study argues that the reformers are more likely to be able
to sustain trade reform if they early on build a pro-trade coalition with
private sector groups and international creditors. It utilizes a process-driven
mode of analysis, cutting through two distinct stages of trade reform process:
initiation and implementation. The analytical framework rests upon trade policy
positions identified with the coalitions of the actors located across the state
and society. One of two main strategies--inward-looking or
export-oriented--dominate the trade policy realm depending upon the relative
power of the two rival policy coalitions. The inward-oriented coalition
consists of the public sector, private industrialists, and importers while the
outward-oriented coalition consists of internationalist elements within the
state, exporters, agricultural sector, and international creditors. Foreign
exchange shortages generally trigger outward-oriented reforms, which are led by
internationalist elements within the state. Their efforts to build a pro-trade
coalition with other outward-oriented interests are vital to sustaining the
reform. This coalitional approach differs from the dominant literature in
several respects. The current trade policy literature, which advocates an
export-oriented strategy, focuses largely on the initiation and content of
trade reform. It says little about the conditions under which a government is
more likely to be able to sustain the reform. This dissertation attempts to
fill this policy gap, stressing the process by which trade reform is
implemented as well as initiated. Unlike state- or society-based theories, it
allows for trade policy coalitions to form among state and private sector
actors. Unlike pure international pressure arguments, it shows how external
pressures interact with the domestic structure. This dissertation analyzes
three Turkish trade reform experiences in a comparative perspective. In 1958
and again in 1970, Turkey initiated trade reforms. Both were reversed within
several years. In 1980, Turkey attempted another trade reform and managed to
sustain it. Why did Turkey sustain the reform in the 1980s, but not in the
previous periods? This question lies at the core of the empirical puzzle this
dissertation attempts to solve. The coalitional solution offered is useful for
those policy-makers who contemplate on reforms in trade policy or any other
areas of political economy.
Cem Ahmet
Akyurek,(1996) ,“Three essays on fiscal policy, inflation, and demand for money
in Turkey
”, PhD,
UNIVERSITY OF
MIAMI
ABSTRACT:This dissertation consists of three essays
on the Turkish economy. The first essay examines the time-series
characteristics of deficits, taxes, and seigniorage for Turkey. Two approaches
are integrated: the optimal taxation model and the political approach. The
model shows that the policy horizon of governments play a crucial role
regarding the long-run behavior of fiscal variables. Short-sighted governments
cause fiscal variables to diverge from paths implied as optimal by the optimal
taxation approach. Specifically, tax smoothing does not hold and a change in
the fiscal regime where deficits widen over time is implied. Evidence from Turkey
supports the implications of the model. The second essay is an empirical
analysis of inflation in Turkey. Inflation became a problem in Turkey during
the late 1970s. Stabilization attempts and structural reforms, have failed to
reduce inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. This essay uses unrestricted VAR
models to analyze the sources of inflation in Turkey during 1981-95. Impulse
responses and historical decompositions show that innovations in the rate of
depreciation have played the major role in determining the time path of
inflation during the period in question. As well, the paper presents some
preliminary evidence on the implications of public sector pricing policies on
inflation dynamics. The third essay examines the demand for money in Turkey
during the high inflation period 1977-95. A model based on the cointegration of
real money balances and inflation provides an adequate characterization of
demand for narrow money. As well, tests indicate a structural shift in money
demand in the mid-1980s due to financial reforms.
Neslihan
Alp,(1996),“Modeling technology acquisition and utilization in manufacturing: A
comparative case study”,
PhD,
UNIVERSITY OF
MISSOURI - ROLLA
ABSTRACT:In an increasingly globalized and
interlinked world economy, the difficulties of implementing effective
technology acquisition and utilization programs are important forces driving
economic growth. Developing countries, under trade liberalization and market
deregulation policies, must acquire and utilize the technology they need
effectively to encourage and sustain this growth. This study deals with the
technology acquisition and utilization process in manufacturing organizations
through a comparative case study between a developed and a developing country.
The survey instrument contains a set of variables that are based on the needs
of the technology acquisition and utilization model proposed. The surveys were
conducted with 55 medium size manufacturing organizations throughout the states
of Missouri, Kansas, and Illinois in the U.S. and with 48 manufacturing
organizations in Istanbul, Turkey. These firms represent a cross section of
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes used to classify the types of
products manufactured. The needs of Turkish manufacturing industry in three
different sectors, namely, metal goods, electronics & electrical equipment,
and nonelectrical machinery were chosen as the focal point for this research.
The results showed that there were significant differences in acquisition
channels and difficulties while there were similarities in the reasons and
impacts of new technology acquired by the U.S. and Turkish industries. The
study also showed that there were outreach opportunities for educational
institutions to provide training programs to help industry improve technology
acquisition and utilization effectiveness in both countries.
Ayse Beril
Altiner-Atac,(1996),“A microeconometric study of Turkish trade policy: Market
power, productivity and international competitiveness” ,
PhD,
THE AMERICAN
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This dissertation develops several
empirical models based on recent developments in international trade theory
that have emphasized the role of scale economies and imperfect competition as a
basis for trade among nations. To evaluate the implications of imperfect
competition and scale economies for the performance of Turkish manufacturing,
this dissertation develops four models for estimating market power and
productivity. These models are used to investigate the impact of trade reform
on economic performance in Turkish manufacturing over the period 1983 to 1990
using KLEM panel data on 72 manufacturing sectors with ownership detail.
Consideration of imperfect competition and scale economies is especially
important for a developing country such as Turkey. Turkish manufacturing is
characterized by small domestic markets and the historically important
institutional role reflected in public enterprises. These features of Turkish
manufacturing are clearly inconsistent with perfect competition. Furthermore,
with the small size of the domestic market the only way to exploit economies of
scale is to access foreign markets through international trade. Analyzing such
complex phenomena requires a variety of strategies that motivate the models
used in this dissertation. The models range from simple data-based models to
advanced econometric specifications of Turkish manufacturing in an open economy
under imperfect competition. The advanced model used in this dissertation is
especially important because it brings together recent developments in
international trade theory and industrial organization using a theoretically
consistent model of firm behavior that consist of a multi-product cost
function, and supply response functions and demand equations. International
trade is consistently incorporated into the behavioral equations. Estimates of
market power and productivity derived from the range of models estimated in
this dissertation are examined for public and private enterprises using
structural and trade policy variables in a conventional response surface
analysis. This dissertation finds that there are important differences between
public and private enterprises. It seems that, on average, market power among
private enterprises is greater than among public enterprises. We also find that
some indication of productivity decline in both types of enterprises over the
period under study. Imports as a market discipline hypothesis seems to be
supported in public enterprises, while exports are associated with increases in
market power. Finally, imports do not appear to be important in explaining
public or private sector productivity, though exports are associated with
productivity increases in both types of enterprises.
RECEP VARCIN,(1996),“AN
ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE INFORMAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY IN
TURKEY”
, PHD,
UNIVERSITY OF
OREGON
ABSTRACT:This study examines conflict and
cooperation in the periodic marketplaces of Ankara, Turkey, with a focus on the
following: (a) the relationship between employers and employees; (b) the
relationship among the market traders themselves: and (c) the relationship
between the central state, the local municipalities and the market traders. I
used loosely structured in-depth interviews, documentary research, and
participant observations to collect data on these topics, and examined conflict
and cooperation from both Marxist and Weberian perspectives. This study
develops a disaggregated model of class locations in order to comprehend the
complexity of class relations and to make an adequate analysis of class-based
conflict and cooperation. Conflicts between employers and employees center on
remuneration and control over the work process, yet such disputes differ
significantly from disputes between employers and employees in the formal
sector. Petty bourgeois ideology, competitiveness among wage-earners, ethnic
ties, and traditional work relations all play an important role in the
relationship between employers and employees. My research reveals there are
three groups of traders--profit maximizers, risk minimizers, and marginal
traders--whose strategies for coping with competition are different. Traders
use ethnicity or localism to help construct economies of scale needed to stay
at the competitive edge and to restrict trade opportunities to a limited circle
of people. This in turn leads to power struggles for market domination among
influential market traders, who use the ethnicity or localism of less
influential market traders to ensure their own competitive positions. This
study also addresses the relationship between the state and market traders with
respect to the dual state roles of accumulation and legitimation. Informal
market trading in Ankara contributes to lowering the cost of living in the city
and therefore contributes to capital accumulation in the formal sector.
Confrontations occur between the state and influential market traders regarding
the former's control over the latter. Conflicts also arise between the
municipality and market traders on the municipality's various efforts to
control the marketplaces and economic activities of market traders. This leads
to organized protests of market traders for decreased municipal control over
their activities.
Alpaslan
Akcoraoglu,(1995),“Two essays on international monetary economics”
,PhD,
WASHINGTON
STATE UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This dissertation contains two essays. Both
essays address the econometric validity of certain exchange rate models in the
light of multivariate Maximum Likelihood methodology of cointegration devised
by Johansen. First essay aims to examine the econometric validity of some
exchange rate models under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). These
models include Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis and Monetary Approach
to Exchange Rates (MAER). One of the main goals of first essay is to analyze
and compare the relative econometric performances of these models during
pre-EMS (European Monetary System) and post-EMS periods by employing Maximum
Likelihood in error correction model. In the view of our empirical evidence, we
have reached the conclusion that deviations from PPP were not persistent in the
ERM. On the other hand, we have found strong evidence of cointegration between
the exchange rate and its fundamentals for European group of countries under
both post-EMS and pre-EMS periods. However, the estimated parameters in both
periods are generally not consistent with the expectations of the MAER. The
second essay deals with the econometric validity of the Monetary Approach to
Exchange Rates (MAER) for post-1980 Turkish case by applying reduced-rank cointegration
analysis. For high inflation countries, monetary factors, rather than
nontransitory real factors, would be expected to dominate exchange rate
changes. On the other hand, Turkey followed a flexible exchange rate policy
during the post-1980 period. Therefore, Turkey constitutes a valuable
case-study for investigating the econometric validity of the MAER. Our
empirical results strongly support cointegration between the exchange rate and
its macro-fundamentals for post-1980 Turkish experience. However, the estimated
cointegrating vectors generally do not conform to the expectations of the basic
monetary model.
JULIA CHRISTINE DEVLIN,(1995),“SECTORAL SHIFTS AND
AGGREGATE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE ECONOMIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST (TURKEY)”,
PHD,
GEORGE MASON
UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT:This dissertation is an application of the
Lilien (1982) sectoral shift hypothesis to time series data for the Turkish
economy, 1967-92. My results indicate that sectoral shifts in labor demand are
negatively correlated with aggregate unemployment, suggesting that the
reallocation of workers across employment sectors has the potential to mitigate
existing labor market rigidities. In the Turkish economy, shifts in labor
demand appear to ease the effects of educational and geographic labor market
segmentation.